Be careful what you wish for – AV through the looking-glass

Be careful what you wish for – AV through the looking-glass

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A guest slot by Rod Crosby Amid the knockabout fun of the AV referendum campaign I’ve noted little serious analysis of where we currently stand under FPTP, and where we might end up, depending on the outcome on 5th May. The Reactionaries among us, nominally Conservatives, simply view AV as the work of the Devil, and seem incapable of offering any reasoned argument for its rejection – nor, just as importantly, for the retention of FPTP. But is the Alternative…

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If the blues win this should Cameron risk a general election?

If the blues win this should Cameron risk a general election?

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Will this mayoral battle be best pointer on the night? With Jackie Ashley in the Guardian and Tim Montgomerie at ConHome both raising the prospect of 2011 general election a big question is whether such a gamble by Dave would pay off. For the only point in going to the country four years early would be to secure an overall majority so the party could rule without the need to consider the yellows. Such a battle would be on the…

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What’s the PB view of what’s going to happen?

What’s the PB view of what’s going to happen?

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Take part in this quickie survey Negative responses to the statements, when you do nothing, are as important as positive ones. Thus if you think YES will win the referendum ignore the two questions on the size of the NO margin. Please consider each point. What are your predictions for the May 5 elections. Tick each one that you think will happen Turnout in AV referendum to exceed 40% NO to win with margin of 10% plus NO to win…

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Jonathan on five targets for Labour

Jonathan on five targets for Labour

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And Easter greetings from Marf May’s elections are important. Not only will they decide who controls millions of pounds, they will set the tone of politics and party morale for the year ahead. They are the first real indication of how votes stack up in the Coalition era. And outside the English cities, they will establish the activist base on which the parties will fight the next general election. The elections are most important for Labour. Out of office, the…

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Might Dave’s AV strategy destroy his government?

Might Dave’s AV strategy destroy his government?

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Is this now the beginning of the end? As James Forsyth of the Speccie is reporting the coalition “has been shaken to its foundation” by Lib Dem fury at the way the Tory-funded NO2AV campaign is going about its task. A particular beef is that NO campaign is making its main object of attacks the leader of its coalition partner who is being vilified for supporting coalition policies? Also the level of Cameron’s involvement in the NO effort goes back…

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Another pollster reports a dramatic Scottish turnaround

Another pollster reports a dramatic Scottish turnaround

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Can anything stop Salmond’s party now? Just a week and a half to go before the general election for the Scottish Parliament a new YouGov poll for Scotland on Sunday reports very similar trends to those we saw on Thursday from Ipsos-MORI. There appears to have been a sharp collapse in the Scottish Labour position over the past week with the SNP now touching vote shares in both sections which could leave the party only a few seats short of…

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Does the ballot paper favour YES?

Does the ballot paper favour YES?

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On the previous thread Beverley raised an issue that I have been pondering over – is the ballot form itself confusing and does it favour YES? She wrote:” I voted NO to AV yesterday, but I very nearly voted YES instead. I got the ballot paper and read the pre-amble that said (paraphrasing) “this is about whether to retain the FPTP system”. Below was the actual referndum question and the YES and NO boxes. After reading the pre-amble I nearly…

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Why’s Dave campaigning where there’s no Tory candidate?

Why’s Dave campaigning where there’s no Tory candidate?

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Bedford Today Didn’t someone tell him about the nominations cock-up? Campaigning visits by party leaders and sitting PM’s to specific locations during the local elections are something of a rarity. The leader’s time is a precious resource and has to be used where it can do most good for the party. So how come that Cameron found himself this week putting fire in the bellies of Tory activists in the Bedford Borough ward of Oakley? For this is the only…

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