Overnight the Dems won the special election from the GOP. Now a lot of this will be down to George Santos who was expelled from Congress for fraud and lying about his personal history. This is a seat that the Dems won in 2020 but lost in the midterms, given the poor polling for Biden this gain for the Dems seems like good news, as the Tweet above implies it fits a pattern of the Dems over performing the polls/the…
We have two by-elections this week in which the government are likely to get gubbed but the major focus has been on the Rochdale by-election which takes place at the end of the month. The Labour candidate has had support from the Labour party withdrawn due to his past comments on the events in the Middle East. It may seem rather quaint that a by-election in this country is being impacted because of a quarrel in a far-away country between people…
The i are reporting that Tory rebels are understood to be mooting an unlikely plan for Lord Cameron to replace Rishi Sunak as prime minister to bolster the party’s chances of winning the next general election. Sunak is bracing for a difficult week in the top job, with the Conservatives expected to lose two by-elections to Labour on Thursday and a gloomy economic update due to be published the same day. It has sparked discussion among some right-wing MPs of attempts to launch…
Sadly for Rishi Sunak perceptions around him are actively damaging for the Tory Party as this YouGov poll finds Rishi Sunak is seen as even less caring than the Conservative Party. Let that sink in, Sunak is seen less caring than the nasty party and the Tory plans to make the general election campaign presidential and focussed on Sunak might be as useful as a condom with holes in both ends. I am loathe to criticise people for making bets on politics…
One of the big developments in the WH2024 race is the growing interest in Michelle Obama being the Democratic nominee. This has been triggered by what was always going to be an issue over Biden- he’s 82 this year and his opponents are looking for signs that he might well be suffering from dementia. This is hardly surprising given his age and I have long taken the view that re-selecting him would be a huge gamble. One of the stories…
Betfair have this market on whether the Joe Biden will be impeached before the election. What I like about this bet is that the terms are very clear For this bet to be a winner if doesn’t require a conviction in the Senate, now House couldn’t organise an impeachment against a cabinet secretary this month I suspect they will not be able to do so against Biden given the revelations this week, backing no in this market, which represents a…
Based on the most recent polling this bet feels like a steal. My expectation is that once the election campaign starts proper the more the public get to see Susan Hall the more the Tory share of the vote will crater. The change in the voting system should also focus the minds of the electorate, I think any risk of letting the Tories in will boost Khan’s vote. I am breaking one of my cardinal rules of betting which is…
From Pip Moss The next Tory Leadership contest should be one of the most fiercely fought for some time. Rather than choosing a new Prime Minister, it is highly likely the Tories will select a new leader at the same time as coming to terms with a significant, possibly even landslide, election defeat. History is not destiny, but past contests suggest a couple of betting tips at the time of writing. A Retreat to Type Parties seem to direct inwards…