Will being tough on crime/immigrants win Tory converts?

Will being tough on crime/immigrants win Tory converts?

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Or are we seeing a core votes strategy? The chart shows the party splits in today’s YouGov “Issues facing you/your family findings and shows a vast difference in the view of what’s important between supporters of the three parties in four key areas. Thus on immigration Tory voters are seven times more likely to be concerned than Lib Dem ones who registered just three percent. Today’s results on the environment are almost exactly a mirror image with LD being seven…

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ComRes finds little support for public sector strikes

ComRes finds little support for public sector strikes

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Are the unions losing the war of words? A ComRes/ ITV News poll on the public sector strikes has found that the public is negative about both the prospects of success and reveals a warning to strikers that they will win little sympathy for strike action in the present financial climate. More than half (54%) say that the public sector strikes ultimately stand no chance of succeeding in changing government policy spending cuts. To another question 63% warn that ‘public…

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YouGov: One in five Labour voters backing Boris

YouGov: One in five Labour voters backing Boris

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Is the colourful old-Etonian heading for a second term? There’s a new YouGov London poll out that has Boris on 48% and Ken on 41%. What’s interesting is that amongst those saying that they’ll vote Labour at the general election 21% say they will be supporting Boris for Mayor. This compares with 4% of Tory voters going for Ken. YouGov had something of a triumph in the 2008 race with a final poll that was right to within 1%

Is holding onto 2010 gains Dave’s first challenge?

Is holding onto 2010 gains Dave’s first challenge?

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Can the blues get a big enough lead over the reds? For a whole series of reasons I regard the ICM poll each month as the most definitive pointer to the current state of opinion. Unlike YouGov and some ComRes polls their fieldwork is carried out over the phone; the firm does not have the sampling problems caused by newspaper readership weightings; and unlike all the other pollsters ICM has a unique weighting structure that puts a premium on the…

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Lib Dems drop to 14 year low with ICM

Lib Dems drop to 14 year low with ICM

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But EdM’s personal ratings are worse than Clegg’s The first ICM political poll to be published for seven weeks is just out in the Guardian and puts the Lib Dems on just 12% – the lowest from the firm for fourteen years. The Tories are on 37% with Labour on 39%. This will come as a bitter blow the Clegg and his team because ICM is traditionally the pollster that has given them the highest ratings. It very much mirrors…

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When is party thinking going to move on from the 80s?

When is party thinking going to move on from the 80s?

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A guest slot by CycleFree According to the weekend’s papers, Ed Milliband is going to argue that his “Promise for Britain” means that “bankers and those on welfare need to have a sense of responsibility to their communities.” All fine – as far as it goes – but the feebleness of what is expected is striking. At a time when we are living through one of the worst crises in capitalism in decades (not yet over and which may indeed…

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The day I wagered my pension on the leader ratings…

The day I wagered my pension on the leader ratings…

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Why Labour should be concerned about Miliband’s numbers The declining leadership ratings for Ed Miliband have raised again the question of whether these are a better pointer to electoral outcomes than standard voting intention surveys when those sampled are asked about the party they will vote for. Exactly three months ago yesterday, on March 19th 2011, I gambled what was for me a large sum, more than half my university pension that month, on a very simple simple proposition:- We…

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How will the Greek bail-out affect views of the EU?

How will the Greek bail-out affect views of the EU?

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What’ll be the impact of events in Athens? One of the findings in the monthly MORI issues index that invariably attracts controversey is on the EU/Europe. This month there was a zero score for those making it the main issue and just 3% listed it as one of the “other issues”. How can it be, it is asked, that so few people seem to care? That’s hard to answer but even in the survey that coincided with the June 2009…

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