How ruthless will his MPs be? There is to be a Clause Four moment after all. Perhaps symbolically, it is not to be over a grand symbol of Labour’s policy but an arcane process for selecting the shadow cabinet. It doesn’t matter though. In taking on this fight, Miliband is placing his authority on the line and challenging his party and his MPs in just the same way. One can well understand his reasons for proposing the change. Not only…
The Friday column by Henry G Manson Yesterday Mike asked if the NHS changes are helping Nick Clegg’s party? They don’t appear to be in terms of substantially changing the opinion polls for the yellows which is scraping around 8-12% depending on which poll you look at. However I am increasingly of the view the NHS will bear fruit in future elections and that a fair few Labour people to consider tactically voting for them to hurt Conservatives again in…
(Mike Smithson is on holiday for the next 11 days and one of the features on PB during his absence is a series of articles by Mark Gill – former head of political research at Ipsos-MORI and co-author with Bob Worcester, Roger Mortimore, Paul Baines of Explaining Cameron’s Coalition) Does Labour’s lead amongst the latter matter? Labour are way more popular among public sector workers, but how much does this matter? One of the benefits of the detailed data tables…
Could the SNP band-wagon continue? Exactly a week on from tonight the polls will close in the first by-election of the new parliament caused by the demise of the MP elected at the May 2010 general election. All the other contests have been either prompted by the courts in one way or another – Phill Woolas/Eric Illsley – or else because the May 5th winner wanted to fight an election for a position outside Westminster – Sir Peter Soulsby in…
Ipsos-MORI And shouldn’t Ed being faring better amongst ex-LDs? As well as this morning’s voting intention figures we now have details of the pollster’s leadership ratings which have been asked in the same form for nearly a third of a century. As can be seen Cameron is almost at a standstill, Clegg sees an upturn from the previous seriously poor figures and Ed Miliband continues to struggle. In spite of Labour benefitting more than the Tories in the fall of…
YouGov now looking even more isolated The June political monitor by Ipsos-MORI for Reuters is out and has both coalition partners moving up at the expense of Labour who are now back in the 30s for the first time from the firm since last December. Labour are down three at 39 with with the Tories up two at 37 and the LDs up one at 11. The shares are almost identical to the ICM poll that was published on Monday…
Could they be in for a tricky conference season? Stan James has an interesting market on which of the three main party leaders will be the first to leave before. The exits have to take place before the next general election and there’s an option that all three will be in place. Clegg is 7/4 Miliband is 2/1 Cameron is 12/1 None of them 5/4 Politicians are a remarkably resilient lot and it takes a lot to shift someone who has got…
.or is Cameron vulnerable on the DNA rape issue? One of Ed Miliband’s lines of attack at today’s PMQs was on the plan to delete the DNA records of those “arrested but not charged with rape”. He argued that some of those involved went on offend with the clear implication that if the police had the records then their task would be easier. A tricky question with the broader objective of making the coalition appear weak on crime. The trouble…