By special request PB NightHawks opens early…
After a bad tempered day ahead of the big EU referendum vote there’s been a special request to open the cafe early – so here we are. @MikeSmithsonPB
Will tomorrow be Cameron’s Clause IV moment?
Has he decided to take on the hardliners? What’s striking about Dave’s approach to tomorrow’s vote is that there’s no suggestion of a compromise. As John Rentoul says the PM could come out of the vote victorious and at the same time have enormously strengthened his leadership. For the sceptics the size of the rebellion could be critical. If it peters out then it could push the EU issue off the agenda for a long time. Could tomorrow be seen…
Has Miliband lost his YouGov safety blanket?
Will the methodology changes hurt Labour most? PB regulars will know that I’ve been raising concerns about YouGov’s weightings for a very long time and have argued that these were giving a rosier picture of Labour’s position compared with other pollsters. Last Monday, while I was still on holiday in Spain, the firm introduced some major amendments which are to be applauded. On the party ID weightings the SNP and PC are now split off from the “others” and the…
Welcome back PB NightHawks – to the mid 1990s
Are you getting a sense of deja vu as well?
Could the government fall in Britain’s online betting paradise?
A guest slot from “PB’s Man on the Rock” In Gibraltar’s forthcoming general election, now only a month away, the Chief Minister Peter Caruana is hoping to be re-elected for a fifth consecutive term in office although, after being in power for the last 16 years, he has made it clear that, were he to be successful, this would be his last election. Under Caruana, Gibraltar has become something of an on-line Las Vegas in Europe. About 20 online betting…
Ministerial resignations – A Punters’ Guide
How to tell when they’ll stay and when they’ll go One of the best rules of thumb for political betting is that unpredictable events don’t happen as often as popular memory (mis)remembers – or put another way, the value is usually against a resignation, leadership challenge or other like happening. The flip side is that sometimes, like with Liam Fox’s resignation, they do. How best to identify the exceptions? Ministers generally resign either because they’ve done something wrong or because…
Now into the weekend in the PB NightHawks Cafe
My first day back after a long holiday. I always hate it as you try to adjust to “normal” life again. The big political story that will dominate the weekend is, of course. Monday’s vote in the commons on the EU referendum motion. It looks as though there’ll be a sizeable Tory rebellion which could easily be 55 or greater. Have a good evening. @MikeSmithsonPB
Henry G Manson’s first general election prediction
Dave can’t win women back with cuts I am now confident Labour will win more votes from women than the Conservatives at the next general election. This would normally be an absurdly bold claim this far out from an election and especially since the historical trends suggest women are more inclined to vote Conservative than men. I don’t put this confidence down to Cameron’s daft “calm down†quips or the relative lack of women in Cabinet. My guess is that…