General election outcome Betfair CON MAJ 1.46/1 NO OVERALL MAJ 1.78/1 LAB MAJ 2.65/1 Are there too many obstacles to success? This is first post on the betting for next time – which almost certainly will be be on May 7th 2015 – three and a half years off. The only general election market I’ve been tempted by is on which year where I’ve built up a reasonable position at odds averaging just short of evens on 2015. I regard…
Has it taken the “fizz” out of the process Just over six weeks ago the fixed term parliaments’ act finally became law setting the next general election date as May 7th 2015. While it is true that there are a couple of ways that an election could take place before that the current coalition arithmetic means that these look unlikely. Reflecting on what’s happened since it strikes me that the change is having a profound affect on the whole political…
Is Clegg out of line with his party supporters? The dataset from the latest ICM poll is out and showns an interesting break-down of how supporters of the main parties responded to the in/out question on the EU. As can be seen from the chart Tories were less likely to want to stay in but more likely to want to leave. But just look at the split amongst those telling ICM that they’d vote Lib Dem. A total of 55%…
Ipsos-MORI Once again concern about the EU barely registers Anthony Wells of UKPR had the salient factor spot on in an excellent review of polling on the EU. Salience, how important people regard an issue, is something that always needs to be taken into account when trying to assess the political impact. He wrote: “The best regular measure of salience is Ipsos MORI’s monthly issues tracker, since it is entirely unprompted. MORI ask people what they think the most important…
This from the firm that in August had the Tories ahead While all the focus was on the vote in the commons last night the ICM October poll for the Guardian was published with more bad news for the coalition parties. What’s really bad for them is that in both July and August ICM was showing a Tory lead. Since then Cameron’s party has dropped three, Labour has moved up four, the LD down four with the others parties gaining…
A chilling prediction for the rebels I was very taken by this Telegraph blog post from Damian Thompson:- “..Many party leaders develop a hearty loathing of backbench rebels, usually in response to the sort of goading that John Major had to endure from his Eurosceptics. Cameron has endured no such humiliation. His determination to force a loyalty test on Right-wingers who are not notably disloyal arises from his personality. No PM in recent times has had such a low opinion…
Will tonight’s vote be career-defining for some? Imagine you are an ambitious young Tory MP keen to make your mark in the world of politics and very eager to get a step on the ministerial ladder. What do you do about tonight’s vote? Do you decide to support the referendum move in the knowledge that this could possibly undermine your chances of preferment and leave you on the back benches. Or do you support the official line which could make…
Make your prediction here What will be the scale of the Tory MP rebellion on today’s EU referendum vote? There will be no rebellion – a last minute compromise will be agreed Up to 25 MPs will abstain or vote against their party line Between 26 and 50 MPs will abstain or vote against their party line Between 51 and 75 MPs will abstain or vote against their party line 76 MPs or more will abstain or vote against their…