The above maps show what happened in Scotland at the last general election. As can be seen the SNP was totally dominant with LAB reduced to a just single seat. A new Scotland poll from Ipsos just out suggests we should expect something very different at GE2024. The SNP vote lead is down to just 7%. However, this is down from a 12-point lead in May 2023 and a 10-point lead in November 2023. Voter preferences are broadly similar to…
TSE
There’s been very little betting interest in the two Tory by-elections defences that take place on February 15th. The assumption is that these will be two easy victories for LAB that will take to 7 the number of GE2019 CON seats that have gone red during this parliament. Above are the GE2019 outcomes which point to smaller swings being required than other LAB gains this parliament Mike Smithson
The Smarkets rules for this bet are: Mike Smithson
One of the major pillars for me expecting Joe Biden to win re-election is abortion. The anticipated red wave election in 2022 failed to materialise was down to the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization in mid 2022. The Republicans ended up with just a net gain of 4 seats in the House and also allowed the Democratic Party to maintain control of the Senate, and there have also been several elections…
The report notes: “In 2010, First Past the Post delivered us a coalition government, the first since 1945, under a system designed to produce single-party majorities. In 2015, First Past the Post gave us the most disproportionate election to date with a majority government secured with under 37 percent of the vote share. In 2017, despite over 80 percent of votes going to just two parties (the highest combined vote share since 1970), First Past the Post could not deliver a majority…
Every week or so it seems we get a new rumour about plots for a different CON leader to be in place at the general election. This, of course, requires that there are enough Tory MPs ready to demand a confidence vote and for that vote to go against the incumbent. I think the Smarkets betting chart has this about right with about a 16-17% chance that he won’t be there. I’ve always felt that the big problem Sunak has…