Every week or so it seems we get a new rumour about plots for a different CON leader to be in place at the general election.
This, of course, requires that there are enough Tory MPs ready to demand a confidence vote and for that vote to go against the incumbent.
I think the Smarkets betting chart has this about right with about a 16-17% chance that he won’t be there.
I’ve always felt that the big problem Sunak has had is that he had only been an MP a short time before getting the leadership when Liz Truss went. I still feel that he still suffers from a lack of experience.
One reason the speculation is so prevalent is that Sunak is in many quarters not seen as very good in the job. He’s not a convincing speaker and I for one find his PMQ performances to be pedestrian in the extreme. They are sometimes too painful to watch.
What happens after the election who knows but it is hard to see him still being at Number 10.