Upending assumptions

Upending assumptions

One of the major pillars for me expecting Joe Biden to win re-election is abortion. The anticipated red wave election in 2022 failed to materialise was down to the decision to overturn Roe v. Wade in the Dobbs v. Jackson Women’s Health Organization in mid 2022.

The Republicans ended up with just a net gain of 4 seats in the House and also allowed the Democratic Party to maintain control of the Senate, and there have also been several elections in which several states have either enshrined. abortion into the state constitution or rejected abortion bans.

As the polling above shows, despite Donald Trump taking credit for overturning Roe the country only 24% credit him for the new abortion bans which is not what I expected to see and leads me to question my betting strategy.

Perhaps I am missing the wood for the trees with the fact 48% of the public believe Trump will pursue new abortion bans but if Biden does win he needs to get that 24% figure higher, as mentioned above the state elections which have protected the right to have an abortion is an indicator that abortion will have an important impact on the election.


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