politicalbetting.com

My expectation is that Sunak will call the general election later on this year which will mean there is a strong likelihood that the US Presidential election and UK general elections will take place within weeks, if not days, of each other which risks in the UK the two elections getting interlinked. Liz Truss isn’t the first Tory to publicly endorse Donald Trump for President and I expect quite a few others will and effectively kiss the ring of Donald…

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35 years ago – 14 February 1989 – Khomeini’s fatwa against Salman Rushdie was issued. A foreign leader instructed members of his religion world-wide to murder him because he had written a book which that leader claimed insulted his religion. After the initial outrage, some Labour politicians started rowing back, claiming that the reaction of Muslims here who supported the fatwa was understandable. It was an unprincipled, craven stance influenced by a desire not to offend Labour voters. Threatening the…

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Speaker Hoyle erred very badly yesterday and he has acknowledged that but the SNP and some Tories want the Speaker ousted now. Using my expertise on Scottish affairs, which has allowed me to make me a profit on every Scottish election since 2007 onwards, I think if the SNP team up with the Tories and oust Speaker Hoyle it will play very badly in Scotland. It will play even more badly if the ousting allows the Tories to select one…

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Just 1% of the electorate think Liz Truss was the best Tory Prime Minister since 2010, so this polling is further proof that the Truss comeback isn’t happening. If she tried to stand again for the Tory leadership again she’s going to get humiliated like a gimp at a BDSM party. She’s completely in denial at the moment, it wasn’t the British Deep State that thwarted her plans, it was her plans being enacted that thwarted her which is why…

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When Sunak sees this polling he will rule out a May election because he thinks he will need more time to turn the polling around. TSE

The Times have quite the revelation that, ceteris paribus, should lead to the sacking or resignation of Kemi Badenoch. A top civil servant told the former chairman of the Post Office to “hobble” into the election and not to “rip off the band aid” in terms of its finances, according to a memo unearthed on Tuesday. Sarah Munby, who was then permanent secretary at the Department for Business, Energy and Industrial Strategy, warned Henry Staunton that “politicians do not necessarily…

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I find this much more polarised than I had thought. The other split that I would not have predicted is that Remainers aresignificantly more likely to back Palestinians. Mike Smithson

Sunak’s very unlucky that he keeps on having so many by-elections which he inevitably loses, this time in Blackpool South, which is part of the English Riviera for those of you unfamiliar with the North. I cannot see any markets yet for this by-election but I cannot see anything other than a Labour gain even before Scott Benton stands as an independent and splits the Tory vote. TSE