Why we are unikely to see a 1992 redux
Tory MPs are deluding themselves if they think we are heading for a 1992 redux (or indeed 2015 redux). I can only hope they are willing to back up their convictions over on the Betfair exchange. TSE
Let us all talk about our first time
With the likelihood of having an election this year my mind went to think about the first general election I followed, which was 1992. As a callow thirteen year old I had Conservative leanings another thing that interested the geek in me was the statistics associated with a general election. What added to the excitement was the dawning realisation that the result was going against expectations, something we saw again in 2015 and 2017. I do not expect a repeat…
The warning signs are there for the GOP for November’s election
I feel confident that the insurrectionist former President will lose the Presidential election based on the available information and precedents. Last night’s South Carolina primary reinforced that, particularly the way Independents are breaking. There’s a been a real pattern over the last few years that the GOP do worse than the opinion polls suggests whilst inevitably the Dems do better. TSE
Could we see Reform poll higher than the Tories before the election in an opinion poll?
With the news that the political gadfly Lee Anderson has been suspended from the Tory party, not for his comments, but for his inability to apologise I wonder if Reform are about to get their first MP. In November Lee Anderson admitted that he was offered ‘a lot of money’ to join Reform UK, the then Tory deputy chairman was secretly taped claiming that the party Farage built is tapping up MPs amid accusations of £430,000 ‘bribes’ to defect. Prior…
Following Hoylegate
What I would like to see is a Scotland only poll on the Hoyle farrago. TSE
The problems with having two massive elections at the same time
My expectation is that Sunak will call the general election later on this year which will mean there is a strong likelihood that the US Presidential election and UK general elections will take place within weeks, if not days, of each other which risks in the UK the two elections getting interlinked. Liz Truss isn’t the first Tory to publicly endorse Donald Trump for President and I expect quite a few others will and effectively kiss the ring of Donald…
A Dismal Spectacle
35 years ago – 14 February 1989 – Khomeini’s fatwa against Salman Rushdie was issued. A foreign leader instructed members of his religion world-wide to murder him because he had written a book which that leader claimed insulted his religion. After the initial outrage, some Labour politicians started rowing back, claiming that the reaction of Muslims here who supported the fatwa was understandable. It was an unprincipled, craven stance influenced by a desire not to offend Labour voters. Threatening the…
Let’s party like it is 1979 all over again
Speaker Hoyle erred very badly yesterday and he has acknowledged that but the SNP and some Tories want the Speaker ousted now. Using my expertise on Scottish affairs, which has allowed me to make me a profit on every Scottish election since 2007 onwards, I think if the SNP team up with the Tories and oust Speaker Hoyle it will play very badly in Scotland. It will play even more badly if the ousting allows the Tories to select one…