Last week I tipped Plaid Cymru to win this by-election because the polls were relatively close and that there was more centre-left votes to squeeze than there were on the right for Reform to squeeze. There are a few reasons why I still think Labour have a chance of winning the next general election is because of that, people will coalesce around who is best placed to defeat Reform. As I am still on holiday here’s some first thoughts on…
Hat tip to Foxy for alerting me to this polling, the split by income has amused me no end. TSE
TSE Site notice – I am currently on holiday so blogging will be light.
Today sees the Caerphilly by-election and these are the latest odds from Ladbrokes and I think the value might be on backing Reform to poll 45% to 50% at 4/1. Last week’s Survation had them polling at 42% so a bit of sampling variation plus tactical voting from the Tories might push Reform into the 45% to 50% bracket. Whilst writing this piece I’ve also convinced myself the 50% might be worth a smaller stake too. TSE
If the King doesn’t act then Prince Andrew, the Queen’s reported favourite child, might be the best thing to happen to the republican movement since Oliver Cromwell. TSE
YouGov have polled across several European countries about their attitudes about the European Union, there’s a bit of negativity towards the EU and its direction therein but as we can see from the above polling there’s no real desire to the leave the EU. I think Europeans have seen how badly and much energy wasted thanks to Brexit and they’ve decided they don’t wish to repeat that which can be classed as a positive outcome of Brexit, Brexit has strengthened…
I wonder if the public think’s Clarkson’s violent past is what will make him a bad MP but will the voters of Doncaster North care? TSE
I suspect punters will get hosed in next month’s budget not just those who play the FOBTs. TSE