What we think about our leaders
TSE Site notice – I am currently on holiday and consequently blogging will be light until Halloween.
Your regular reminder that words matter
I love how changing a word or phrase can lead to a different result by changing the term from ‘publicly owned’ to ‘run by the government’ sees support fall by 10%. This is why you should never consider an opinion poll finding the definitive result on a particular topic. TSE Site notice – I am currently on holiday and consequently blogging will be light until Halloween.
Apparently Labour’s choice of deputy leader can lose them the next election
I like Bridget Phillipson but these comments sound like desperation by somebody who is about to lose the deputy leader race. Issues such as the economy and the NHS and not the deputy leader of the Labour party will determine the outcome of the next election. TSE
Dominic Cummings is right
I agree with Dominic Cummings that Sir Keir Starmer is rubbish at politics but Dominic Cummings needs to get his eyes tested if he thinks he can see evidence that Labour removes its leaders unlike the Tories. Interestingly he also names Starmer’s three likely sucessors. Angela Rayner, Lisa Nandy, and Ed Miliband. The first two are no hopers in my view, whilst Ed Miliband is somebody I tipped to succeed Starmer at 100/1. TSE
This is why Find Out Now polls are such outliers
Towards the end of the week we get the regular Find Out Now poll which has a tendency to get Reform supporters excited but as Sam Freedman notes this is down to their methodology and sampling and like him I am not convinced. If you have a wildly unrepresentative sample then the chances are the end product will be utter bobbins. Here’s the question I would ask anybody reading this article. Do you really think the people who pick my…
The Rachel Reeves effect
TSE
This 2/1 bet feels like value
As Lord Ashcroft can attest constituency polling is very difficult but assuming the poll is largely right, then I think the value is with Plaid Cymru, they are 2/1 in what is a 50/50 race. There’s also plenty of votes on the left for them to squeeze, I can see Labour getting squeezed to single digits which is some achievement as they polled 46% in 2021. The only team to have a worse record in Wales recently than Labour is…
Don’t push too far, your dreams are China in your hand
Based on events in Parliament, the commentariat, and social media, the China spy story is a big deal yet very few of the public have noticed. The story may get traction but unless there’s a smoking gun I expect other issues such as Rachel Reeves and her tax plans will dominate the news agenda. TSE