politicalbetting.com

On Thursday the 12th of June 2025 Anno Domini, politicalbetting.com published an article headlined ‘Meet Reform’s new chairman’ David Bulll which was drenched in sarcasm about the former presenter of ‘Most Haunted’ following his interview with Richard Madeley. The polling from More in Common shows I was wrong and that Dr Bull is in fact the perfect candidate to be chairman of Reform, I would like to apologise to anybody hurt or offended by my sarcasm on Thursday. TSE

Based on comments by some on PB, the media, and indeed some fatalism within the Labour Party the outcome of the next election is already inevitable. I am reminded that at the end of May 2021 Labour were an implied 8.3% chance of winning a majority at the next general election, spoiler alert: Sir Keir Starmer won the next general election with a 174 seat majority, a lot of that was down to the Tories but it is a reminder…

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As a good Muslim I have no theories why people vote based on alcoholic drink preference. TSE

I suspect Bibi’s legacy will not improve after the attack on Iran inside or outside Israel. TSE

I am liking this new professionalism from Reform appointing serious people for serious times, long may it continue. TSE

This is the second in a series looking at the challenges and opportunities for the 7 main Great Britain parties.  This time we will look at Plaid Cymru, the Welsh nationalists. Plaid have received a very consistent share of the vote (apart from the very first Senedd election). In UK General Elections, they do slightly better in years when the Tories are doing badly. Geography I would recommend Tim Marshall’s Power of Geography books. These show how geography has impacted…

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Such a rapid turnover in leaders often indicates a much wider malaise If these rebels are successful then the SNP will have had four First Ministers during this Holyrood term which is more Prime Ministers the Tories had during the 2019 to 2024 Westminster Parliament. When you go through this many leaders in this short a period it damages your credibility with the voters. I cannot see any betting markets related to this but I wouldn’t be surprised to see…

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My view is that the economy is what primarily decides general elections and the first finding from More in Common shows where Reform’s economic polices that would make Liz Truss blush are seen a risk. The voters will find with a Reform government the dildo of consequences rarely arrives lubed. However the good news for Reform is after the disaster that was Liz Truss and the inutility of Rachel Reeves means the risks about a Reform government might be negated,…

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