Welcome to the first in a strictly limited series. Every Monday [1] for the next 9 weeks, I’ll be doing a rundown of the forecasts from the main poll aggregators and analysts [2] for the 2024 US elections. Hopefully this will be useful as a baseline and a reference point for everyone. Of the forecasts included:a) electoral-vote.com and Real Clear Politics are basically poll averages; RCP is included because it’s well known and often quoted, although there are very well…
MPs start voting in round one on Wednesday, my expectation is that Mel Stride will be the first to be knocked out then followed by Dame Priti Patel. Then voting is paused until after the last four hold a beauty parade at conference in early October. TSE
An increase of support for an elected head of state from 20% to 25% is an increase of 25% (5/20 = 25%). My use of statistics is unimpeachable. TSE
As a lifelong Tory I get the feeling some of my fellow Tories are deluding themselves about the scale of the defeat. Yes Starmer polled a mere 33.7% at the election (but ignoring the Tories polled even lower), the result wasn’t as bad as the MRPs suggested, and well most Reform voters are really Tory voters in name, whilst ignoring the elephant in the room, the Lib Dems. As we can see from the below chart the gap between the…
In the next 30 minutes or so, Politicalbetting is going to transition from Vanilla Forums for comments Commento.io. Why? Well, as some of you will have noticed, Vanilla came with a bunch of… issues. Specifically, many of you could only access the comments “backwards”. Of course, some people prefer it that way. So: We’re going to try Commento.io. It may be a terrific success. It may be something we revert after 72 hours because it doesn’t run as well as…
(For the purposes of this article, I’m only looking at constituencies in Great Britain. Sorry, Northern Ireland, but your politics are a rule unto themselves. Plus – we’re primarily concerned about who can win control of the UK-wide Government). Since the election, we’ve heard a lot about how Labour’s support is “a mile wide and an inch deep.” We’ve also heard about how precarious is the Tory position; there is plenty of possibility for them to fall further. We’re all…
These are the polls I was expecting to see after the Democratic Party convention. My strategy is that Harris will be the favourite by the time of the first debate and if she comes through that unscathed she should maintain a lead on Betfair and the polls, that finding from Pennsylvania should have Trump Quakering. This is still a very close election though. TSE
It’s not been a perfect campaign so far Tom Tugendhat, particularly with the turd incident but I do think he still makes the final two. Once Mel Stride is eliminated Tugendhat is the only one campaigning for the One Nation vote, so his odds will look very different next week as Tory MPs start voting next Wednesday. TSE