politicalbetting.com

Note: I have excluded John Smith’s tenure as Labour leader for obvious reasons. The nexus point for British politics in 2026 is whether Sir Keir Starmer KC will remain Prime Minister and there’s an expectation he will be ousted shortly after the local and devolved elections in May. The current expectation is Labour will perform as well as HMS Hood at Battle of the Denmark Strait, if you’re not aware of that engagement ‘Less than 10 minutes after the British…

Read More Read More

As a child of the 1980s the music of the era had a profound effect on me as people can guess from my occasional subtle 80s music references in the headlines so I find this kind of analysis utterly mesmerising. Perhaps as a nation we might feel better and more united if we listened to more 1980s and 1990s music. TSE

When Mike Smithson first asked me to start editing political betting he made it very clear that I would be privy to embargoed polling and I shouldn’t bet based on those polls until they were public., I was more than happy to comply due to my sense of ethics. It appears others do not have that same sense of ethics when it comes to insider information. TSE

Bet365 have a one sided market up on whether Donald Trump will win the 2026 Nobel Peace Prize and even before this morning’s news I wasn’t interested and I still wouldn’t be interested if the odds were 33/1. The cynic in me wonders if we’re about to see more truly damaging Epstein revelations about the self confessed pussy grabber Donald Trump. TSE

The chart above shows the Betfair most seats at the next general election market over the last 12 months and it shows how Reform have been in the ascendancy. TSE

Ladbrokes have put up some specials for 2026 and a lot of these look like they will fund the 2026 Ladbrokes Christmas bonus but two bets seem worth a punt even if they violate my rule about avoiding bets where the bookie doesn’t offer both sides of the bet. The two bets I feel like value are the two YouGov related ones. Whilst Reform are going backwards in the last few months I would expect them to pick up a…

Read More Read More

A reminder that betting markets are regularly laughably wrong. It also serves as a reminder that you shouldn’t bet on the next Pope markets as is the epitome of an insiders’ market, which is what I wrote when JD Vance Liz Trussed Pope Francis. TSE

I find it interesting that even Brits living in rural areas support the ban. As somebody who has lived in rural England I am a little bit surprised by these findings. About twenty years ago when the debate about fox hunting was raging I was entirely agnostic about the debate, and the same applies to trail hunting. TSE