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Category: US Politics

Nate Silver says Obama has a 61.6% chance of victory

Nate Silver says Obama has a 61.6% chance of victory

Is now the time to take your Romney profits? For months I’ve been saying that the best value bet for the White House race has been on Romney becoming next president. At the start of May I got £1500 on at an average Betfair price of 3.15. Today I’ve completely closed down the bet at an average price of 2.48 – so that’s a nice profit locked in. Judging when to get out of a position is always quite tricky…

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Is it worth taking out Mitt insurance?

Is it worth taking out Mitt insurance?

David Herdson on the Republican nomination. What are the chances that Romney won’t be nominee? Following his comprehensive win in Texas this week, the media have generally called Mitt Romney as officially over the winning line, with more than half the delegates for the Republican convention later this year. Yes and no. Some states which held caucuses months ago have still to allocate their delegates as the initial vote was just the first stage in the process.  If delegates are…

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Surely Ron Paul can’t steal the nomination off Romney?

Surely Ron Paul can’t steal the nomination off Romney?

What are we to make of reports that he might? Partly because I’m writing regularly on the 2012 White House race for the Telegraph I’m being contacted a lot by Ron Paul supporters who believe that there man will be in a strong position at the Republican National Convention in Tampa at the end of August. First they are saying ignore the regular delegate counts put out by the media – these are only half the story. For over the…

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Romney punters will have to wait until Tampa

Romney punters will have to wait until Tampa

Betfair Politics A couple of people have raised with time the question of when they can expect to pick up their winnings on Mitt Romney for the Republican party nomination. The battle is just about all over with Mitt expected to cross the finishing line with the 1144 delegates in the next two to three weeks. Unfortunately for punters the bookies are likely to do what they have done in the past and wait until the party convention has met….

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Betfair punters still make Romney just a 33 percent shot

Betfair punters still make Romney just a 33 percent shot

Betfair Politics Is Romney’s price almost bound to tighten? There’s a new Gallup poll out that gives the presumptive Republican nominee, Mitt Romney, a nine point lead on the economy. The latest daily tracker poll from the firm has Romney on 47% to Obama’s 44%. In many key state races the margins are very tight yet, overall, punters on Betfair continue to put their money on the incumbent. The chart above shows the trend and there’s been almost no real…

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What’s Ron Paul going to do with his delegate harvest?

What’s Ron Paul going to do with his delegate harvest?

.. Has he now the numbers to threaten Mitt? Three months I put the maximum that Ladbrokes would allow me on Rand Paul, son of Ron, to be the Republican V-P nominee. The odds then were a tasty 50/1. Overnight I bet again on Rand with Betfair at a nice 44/1. I decided to risk more money because of some remarkable moves in the Republican nomination race by the enthusiastic and hugely well organised band of Ron Paul supporters For…

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What part will Herman Cain play in 2012?

What part will Herman Cain play in 2012?

Wikimedia Commons (Gage Skidmore) Morus examines the candidate leading the GOP polls It’s not easy for the party outwith the White House to unseat a sitting (elected) President. Since the last depression, FDR, Eisenhower, Nixon, Reagan, Clinton, and GW Bush all strode to re-election. Truman retired, JFK was shot, Johnson beaten by his own party, Ford was never elected. Carter would be unique, were it not for the three-way split caused by Ross Perot that allowed Clinton to beat GHW…

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Will Biden be re-nominated as VP?

Will Biden be re-nominated as VP?

Wikimedia Commons Might there be a Democratic contest after all? Betting on the next VPOTUS is a mug’s game. Our Genial Host, I think as a rule, avoids throwing money on it beyond treating it like an amusing raffle. I, for my sins, can’t resist it: the political punter’s version of the Grand National – after all, form only counts when half the horses don’t fall over their own feet. The permutations and combinations for the Republican VP nomination would…

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