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David Herdson – “So Mr Obama – feeling brave”

David Herdson – “So Mr Obama – feeling brave”

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David Herdsonwonders how serious Obama really is about gun control. www7.politicalbetting.com/?p=54996 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) December 22, 2012 How serious is he about gun law reform? Barack Obama’s response to the dreadful murders in Newtown, Connecticut – that something must be done – could well make the contest to reform of gun laws the defining political battle of his second term, just as healthcare was in his first. It will not be a battle easily undertaken and certainly not…

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Can a billion dollars of pester power make up for a lack of enthusiasm?

Can a billion dollars of pester power make up for a lack of enthusiasm?

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Edmund in Tokyo on the Obama fight-back One big question about the presidential election has been whether Republicans enthusiastic about defeating Obama and Democrats merely inclined to keep him, Romney will win the election by differential turnout. The Republicans often poll better among likely voters than registered voters, the combination of a weak economy and an uninspiring debate performance now puts the gap at as much as 5%. But in an election where 6 billion dollars worth of persuation is…

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Will the race for the White House be over before the debates are?

Will the race for the White House be over before the debates are?

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Edmund in Tokyo’s inaugural guest slot If the US presidential election were held tomorrow, it looks fairly clear who would win. Nate Silver’s “Nowcast”, showing his model’s estimate of the probability of an Obama win would be if the election day polls were the same as the polls today, currently stands at 95.8%. Neither Silver nor the betting markets currently think an Obama win in November is anything like that likely. Silver’s forecast for the actual election stands at a…

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Why are Obama’s re-election odds so short?

Why are Obama’s re-election odds so short?

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David Herdson asks “Is Obama really so assured of some swingback?” Conventions come and conventions go.  Providing they go more or less to plan, the candidate will receive a short-term bounce in the polls, some favourable coverage in the media and a reinvigorated campaign.  Such has been largely the lot of Mitt Romney this last week and such will likely be the case for Barack Obama next.  Romney has either closed the gap or taken a slight lead, depending on…

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Most Americans Still Predict Obama Will Win 2012 Election

Most Americans Still Predict Obama Will Win 2012 Election

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Gallup have released some polling, one of which asks, Regardless of whom you support, and trying to be as objective as possible, who do you think will win the election in November. Barack Obama 58% (+2%) Mitt Romney 36%  (nc) The changes are from the last time they asked the question in May. Given the closeness in the Voting Intention polling, the 22% lead is interesting, and for Mitt Romney, probably disheartening, given “Americans’ prediction of who will win is significant…

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Richard Nabavi on The American Presidential election: Swing, Shift and Jiggle

Richard Nabavi on The American Presidential election: Swing, Shift and Jiggle

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  Why Electoral College bands are not created equal   State 2008 lead        Poll average        Elec College Votes    Cumulative ECV Nevada 12.5 5 6 243 Wisconsin 13.9 3.5 10 253 New Hampshire 9.6 3.5 4 257 Ohio 4.6 1.8 18 275 Iowa 9.5 1 6 281 Colorado 9 1 9 290 Virginia 6.3 1 13 303 Florida 2.8 1 29 332 North Carolina 0.3 -1 15 347 Missouri -0.1 -6.3 10 357 Montana…

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Ann Romney says the VP pick might be a woman

Ann Romney says the VP pick might be a woman

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Should punters take this seriously? In a CBS TV interview this morning Ann Romney gave a hint that Mitt is thinking of choosing a woman as his running mate. She said that she and her husband had “been looking at” the possibility of choosing a woman to run alongside him. “And I’d love that option as well”. Take that as you will but if you think that there’s something in it then it narrows the field down for those betting…

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V-P Betting: PB’s exclusive money-saving guide

V-P Betting: PB’s exclusive money-saving guide

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RealClearPolitics It’s a mugs game – DON’T BET With the Republican nomination settled and the White House election not taking place until November one of the big stories at the moment is who will Romney pick as his running mate. Betting’s been quite lively with one new name coming into the frame after another. It all seems so logical – Mitt, it is said, might have problems with Hispanic voters hence the “obvious” choice becomes Mario Rubio. Another day and…

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