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Category: US Politics

Looking ahead to the 2016 US Presidential Election

Looking ahead to the 2016 US Presidential Election

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The Republican Party Nominee My strategy has been to lay Chris Christie, even before his bridge problems. Some in the Republican Party have never forgiven him for his hug of President Obama during Hurricane Sandy and that’s influenced my thinking. But on who to back, I followed Mike’s tip to back Rand Paul at 50/1, he is now trading as low as 7/1 which makes this tip very profitable for anyone who followed it. The favourite is Marco Rubio, as the Senator…

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My favourite political betting moment of the year

My favourite political betting moment of the year

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When politics and poker met The worlds of politics and poker have been feeding off each other for many decades, and in the Middle East’s most discussed and highly charged conflict, the two were about to collide in an unexpected fashion. An army is on the move, rockets detonate with an unrelenting regularity and the civil war in Syria is reaching its most bloody phase. Prime Ministers take to the nearest camera to deliver a solemn hope for peace, and…

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Peter the Punter on the US elections

Peter the Punter on the US elections

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The Big Picture, Midterms, Hillary It may seem a little early to focus on the US Elections – the Midterms are still a year away and the Presidentials are not due until November 2016 – but regular political punters will know the importance of reviewing the field early. US Politics have provided us with some of our richest pickings and it has often been the case that great value has been obtained by taking an early position. I should say…

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Dicing with the Debt Ceiling could diminish Dollar dominance?

Dicing with the Debt Ceiling could diminish Dollar dominance?

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Playing with the reputation of the global reserve currency is a risk A quick quiz: who is the Chinese president?  If you can do that, name the Chinese prime minister and foreign secretary as well.  Tricky?  Very much so.  I’d be surprised if 5% of the population could correctly answer the first question and astonished if even 1% could get all three.  It’s really quite remarkable how little prominence is given to what is likely to be the world’s biggest…

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David Herdson looks at the US budget crisis and wonders whether Obama is about to be impeached

David Herdson looks at the US budget crisis and wonders whether Obama is about to be impeached

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How far will the US budget/debt ceiling row go? At first glance, the lead question seems such an obvious Question To Which The Answer Is No that you’d be forgiven for thinking ‘why’, ‘how’ or even ‘what?!’.  In a sensible world, it would be – but then in a sensible world, the US federal government wouldn’t be the best part of a week into shutdown – and political betting is as much as anything an exercise is scenario planning. US…

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A bad day all round, except for the result

A bad day all round, except for the result

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David Herdson wonders if the biggest loser was Obama It’s unlikely that many of those involved in Thursday’s debate and vote will look back on their participation with pride.  Quite why parliament was recalled early when it was due to return next Monday anyway remains unclear, particularly given that the UN inspectors’ report should be published at the weekend or shortly after.  The assumption has to be that irreversible steps were planned before next week, probably at the initiative of…

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David Herdson on the great Hillary #WH2016 guessing game

David Herdson on the great Hillary #WH2016 guessing game

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Is Hillary Clinton going to run in #WH2016?On Betfair she’s 5/2 favourite to get nomination even though she’ll be 69 twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) February 2, 2013 Would this be a contest too far or success at last? After twenty years at or near the centre of US political life, and four years of Secretary of State, Hillary Clinton can now finally put her feet up and enjoy retirement. Or she can start seriously planning the presidential campaign everyone’s…

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Gallup boost for the Obama plan for stronger gun laws as the President prepares to start his second term

Gallup boost for the Obama plan for stronger gun laws as the President prepares to start his second term

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Pie chart showing the Gallup poll break-down on support for the Obama plans for stronger gun laws twitter.com/MSmithsonPB/st… — Mike Smithson (@MSmithsonPB) January 19, 2013 But he’s got a big battle ahead Tomorrow morning, in private because it is a Sunday, Barack Obama will be sworn in to start his second term in the White House. The big public ceremony takes place on Monday. He’s already made clear that a key early objective is his plan, announced on Wednesday, for…

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