It is going to be days till we know The Betdata.io chart tells the story of the night as seen on Betfair where there is no outcome yet but punters think that it will go to Trump. Clearly there are furious battles ahead as results are finalised and this is going to drag for quite some time. An extremely pleasurable feature was the PB election night Zoom gathering initiated by Barnesian. It was really good to reunite or put a…
Chart from Betdata.io of the Betfair exchange market. Meanwhile the Washington Post is reporting that an unidentified robocaller has placed an estimated 10 million calls in the past several weeks warning people to “stay safe and stay home,” spooking some Americans who said they saw it as an attempt to scare them away from the polls on Election Day. Quite how effective that will be we won’t know until overnight but given that Trump is much more reliant on one…
This time tomorrow things could be very different for him If the polls have got this right then overnight we could see what is a relatively rare event in US politics – when a sitting President fails to get re-elected after a first term. It might not be that we get enough results to come to that conclusion for a day or so but you can sure that the legion of US political commentators will be examining every small move…
For this to work it requires a huge GOTV operation and overcoming COVID fears Just about the whole world is aware by now of how Trump intends to declare that the election was rigged against him. He’s attached a special premium to those who vote on the day compared with those 94,006,161 Americans who have already cast their ballots either by voting in person or be using the mail. His first big problem is COVID itself which at the end…
With just six days to go until the US Election, a YouGov poll commissioned by Betfair finds 80% of those in the UK that expressed a preference would pick Biden. Just 20% would vote Trump. Trump does better with those who voted Leave in the referendum with 38% going for the incumbent. Amongst CON voters at GE2019 39% said they’d back Trump. That compares with the 99% support for Biden amongst those who voted for LAB or the LDs at…
The Smarkets chart shows how the Biden-Trump betting has moved following the debate and as can be seen punters are just a touch more confident about the incumbent but there’s really been very little movement. What is clear is that Trump’s attempted smear effort in relation to Biden’s son hasn’t really taken off. The campaign development that could possibly end up as the “October surprise” is the failure to find the parents of 545 migrant children who have been detained…
Betting at 0415 BST Biden 66% Trump 34% I did not stay up to watch the debate but from the reactions I’ve managed to collate it is clear that Trump did better than the first debate but he scored no knockout blows against Biden. In the betting Trump edged up 2% and Biden dropped 2% on Betfair. This was from the verdict by Taegan Goddard at PoliticalWire: After the chaotic and mostly incoherent first presidential debate, Donald Trump’s advisers pleaded…
Overnight there is the last in the programme of TV debates between Trump and Biden. There were going to be three of them but Trump would not agree to the terms set out by the independent debates commission which meant second one did not take place. Tonight’s event includes a new feature – the contenders will be muted while the other is making statements. This comes at a time when maybe a third of Americans have already voted with in…