The Smarkets chart shows how the Biden-Trump betting has moved following the debate and as can be seen punters are just a touch more confident about the incumbent but there’s really been very little movement.
What is clear is that Trump’s attempted smear effort in relation to Biden’s son hasn’t really taken off.
The campaign development that could possibly end up as the “October surprise” is the failure to find the parents of 545 migrant children who have been detained for months at the border. The report reminds voters of this very controversial move at Trump’s orders, shows enormous administrative incompetence and highlights his callous disregard for many sections of the population.
My guess is that this will go down particularly badly with Latino voters and women and will reinforce their determination to vote.
Trump was totally unapologetic about this in the debate overnight and the Biden campaign is surely not going to let this go.