Trump’s extraordinary on the day voting gamble

Trump’s extraordinary on the day voting gamble

For this to work it requires a huge GOTV operation and overcoming COVID fears

Just about the whole world is aware by now of how Trump intends to declare that the election was rigged against him. He’s attached a special premium to those who vote on the day compared with those 94,006,161 Americans who have already cast their ballots either by voting in person or be using the mail.

His first big problem is COVID itself which at the end of October reached a new height in the US where a total 230k (427 of them on Saturday) have now died. In Texas the death toll is 18,582 and in Florida, 16,788 have died (28 of them on Saturday). Trump might think he personally has conquered the virus but how is that going to impact on millions who have not yet voted.

How many potential Trump voters are going to be deterred tomorrow simply because they are scared of catching it? How many others are self-isolating.

Leaving the pandemic aside waiting to the last possible day to get the bulk of your support out risks them having many with other reasons why they cannot make it to the polling place tomorrow.

It also requires a huge and effective GOTV operation with the very tight timetable being the hours that polling places are open. In the UK we are familiar with the polls opening at 7am and closing a 10pm. Most US state operate with much shorter periods than that.

Whatever Trump needs a huge margin of the on the day votes in order to support his case and you can bet that the Biden campaign will also be throwing everything into the final period as well.

Mike Smithson

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