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Category: Referendum

How AV can be stopped even if it’s a YES

How AV can be stopped even if it’s a YES

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Nick Palmer looks at the final option A former constituent recently contacted the Electoral Commission to ask about the interaction between boundary changes and the referendum, and had this provocative reply: “The review of boundaries and the referendum are linked as they were in the same Bill voted by Parliament. If there is a yes vote in the referendum then the legislation provides for AV to be introduced. However, under the same legislation, this cannot happen until Parliament has approved…

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How valid is the YouGov 58% YES poll?

How valid is the YouGov 58% YES poll?

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Did previous questions influence the referendum finding? There’s a new AV poll from YouGov just out that was commissioned by the Institute for Public Policy Research and has findings that are very different from other recent surveys from the online pollster. After re-percentaging so that only decided voters are included the survey found YES ahead by 58% to 42% – a lead of sixteen points. This compares with the most recent YouGov AV poll that has NO 8% ahead. What…

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YouGov reports sharp move to NO in just 4 days

YouGov reports sharp move to NO in just 4 days

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What’s behind the shift? There’s been a sharp move to NO reported from YouGov and it’s all happened in the space of four days. At the weekend the Sunday Times survey from the firm had the YES campaign with a two point leader amongst decided voters. Today’s SUN is now reporting that the latest poll, where fieldwork closed yesterday afternoon, has NO eight points ahead. This is the first time that News International’s pollster has had NO ahead when the…

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What if it’s an overall YES but England votes NO?

What if it’s an overall YES but England votes NO?

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Could the real argument start AFTER May 5th? With one poll after another showing the referendum race as neck and neck there becomes a real possibility that we could see the overall UK result being a YES but with England going NO. The reasons have been discussed here before. The referendum coincides with general elections to the devolved parliaments in Scotland, Wales and Northern Ireland with turnout, perhaps into the 60s. In England there are either local council elections or,…

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Is NO too reliant on Andrew Rawnsley’s “Thickos”?

Is NO too reliant on Andrew Rawnsley’s “Thickos”?

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Could this have a critical affect on turnout? It was Andrew Rawnsley in the Observer at the end of February who spotted the socio-economic splits in voting intentions on the referendum with those in the lower social groups be more likely to be NO than those in higher groupings. At the time he wrote:- “….The no campaign will probably not put it so indelicately themselves, but they are calculating that their best hope of preserving first past the post is…

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Jonathan asks: Is anybody involved in the AV battle?

Jonathan asks: Is anybody involved in the AV battle?

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Why’s there no sign of activity on the ground? We’ve been debating the AV referendum on PB for more than a year. Well finally it’s here! With less than a month to go, the sun is out and the campaign proper has started. Let’s share reports from the front. Have you made up your mind? Is the march of AV campaigners deafening? And has your passion for AV or FPTP forced you out on the street? To get the ball…

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Who’d benefit most from LD 2nd prefs: LAB or CON?

Who’d benefit most from LD 2nd prefs: LAB or CON?

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Which party’s the most to fear from AV? The chart was prepared from polling data gathered by Professor John Curtice and presented to last week’s session on the alternative vote organised by the Political Studies Association. For each election those who had voted were asked who their second preference would be if they had had a choice. What’s striking about the historical line is that 2010 was the only one of the general elections where the LD split was not…

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Is it down to “Non-FPTP Virgins” and Age?

Is it down to “Non-FPTP Virgins” and Age?

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The above charts show two sets of data with the referendum voting intentions of decided voters from the latest YouGov poll. The first shows how the referendum is being viewed by different age groups and illustrates the heavy reliance of YES voters in the younger age groups who are, of course, less likely to vote. It should be noted that YouGov did ask a voting certainty question and the splits reflect that. Our second chart shows the regional splits with…

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