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Category: Polls

Concern about the NHS moves to a three year high

Concern about the NHS moves to a three year high

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Ipsos-MORI Can the blue team ease the worries? Every month for nearly a third of a century Ipsos-MORI has asked the same two part-question question in the same standard way which, almost uniquely, is totally unprompted. The pollster asks “What do you see as the most important/other important issues face Britain today”. Unlike the firm’s voting intention polls which are carried out by phone fieldwork for the issues index is done face to face. Given the unprompted nature of the…

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Will Labour’s tribalism see Ed Home?

Will Labour’s tribalism see Ed Home?

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Does it matter what supporters think of Miliband? I’m must ploughing through the hundreds of pages from Michael Ashcroft’s massive polling project for the Tories which tries to work out how the blues can win a majority. You can get the full details of the various segments here. I was quite struck by this finding: “Ed Miliband was a very much less important factor for Labour voters than David Cameron was for Conservative voters. Of those who thought Labour were…

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Tories take 2pc lead amongst 2010 general election voters

Tories take 2pc lead amongst 2010 general election voters

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A closer look at the latest ComRes online survey for the Indy on Sunday and Sunday Mirror suggests that Cameron’s Tories are now enjoying a lead amongst those who could be arsed to vote at the 2010 general election. The pollster is the only firm to make this data available and I highlight the proportion of non-2010 voters amongst those now saying that they will vote for the five parties. As can be seen the blues are doing best with…

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Which firm is getting closest with the Labour lead?

Which firm is getting closest with the Labour lead?

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The chart shows the Labour leads from the most recent surveys of the pollsters that have reported in the past month. YouGov which reports five days a week changes all the time though it tends to show much higher Labour shares than the others. This year it has had Labour in the 40s in every poll bar one – the survey that was taken on election day, May 5th. ICM, by contrast, has not had Labour above 39% in any…

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Labour drops out of the 40s with Populus

Labour drops out of the 40s with Populus

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It’s CON 37: LAB 39: LD 11 There’s a new Populus phone poll in the Times which sees the Tories edging up a point with Labour dropping one and the Lib Dems unchanged. This means that all the phone polls this month have Labour in the 30s. This is in sharp contrast to the online firms which have Ed Miliband’s party a few notches higher. YouGov, for instance, has had the main opposition party in the 40s throughout 2011. With…

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The Holyrood polling race – the result

The Holyrood polling race – the result

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Before we finally move on from the pollsters’ performances in their final surveys ahead of last Thursday’s election we still have to cover Scotland. The chart for the Holyrood constituency section is above. Alas ICM, the top pollster from the Scottish Elections in 2007 and the firm that got the AV referendum correct to within a remarkable 0.1%, did not carry out a Holyrood survey after March 15th and is not included. It should be noted that the Ipsos-MORI survey,…

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ICM poised to win the referendum polling race

ICM poised to win the referendum polling race

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Do phone firms get better results? With barely a handful of declarations from Northern Ireland still to be made it’s almost a certainty that NO is going to win the referendum by a margin of about 68.5% to YES’s 31.5%. This is a great achievement for Matthew Elliot and all at NO2AV as well as to ICM whose final poll published in the Guardian on Wednesday evening had it 68-32. Interestingly, as the chart shows, it was the two phone…

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Which pollster will win the referendum polling race?

Which pollster will win the referendum polling race?

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Cast your vote in the quickie election day poll While we wait for some hard news let’s speculate about the Great 2011 Polling Race. The next twenty-four hours or so are going to be pretty tense for the four polling organisations that carried out regular AV surveys as well as a final week poll. Their projected outcomes – a NO victory – are not in doubt but which one will be nearest to the vote share? There is enormous kudos…

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