Ipsos-MORI What PB regulars will know is my favourite non-voting intention poll of the month – the Ipsos-MORI issues index – is just out and the big change is that concern about the economy is moved to its lowest position since February 2010 – three months before the general election. The final poll before last year’s election had the economy on 70% – now it’s just over 50%. Fieldwork for this poll operates in exactly the same manner as it…
How long can Osborne go on blaming the “other lot” The June “blame game index” from YouGov is out and has the proportion of those sampled blaming the coalition down two points on May to 24% – the lowest figure in 2011 since the first week in January. The last Labour government, meanwhile, is blamed by 40% which is down a point but is still up 2% on what it was in March. I think that this is a key…
The LDs drop to a new low with the phone pollster There’s a new Populus phone poll out for the times that has the Tories up 2 to 39, Labour up 1 to 40 with the LDs dropping to a new low with the firm. In other findings just 23 per cent of voters now say they trust the Labour leader and Shadow Chancellor to run the economy better, a 10 per cent drop since the last time Populus asked…
Would the ICM approach have produced a blue lead? Last night, as reported in the previous thread, a new ComRes phone poll suggested that the Tories and Labour were now level pegging – the first time that Miliband’s party had not been in the lead since October 2010. They were both on 37% with the Lib Dems down on just 12%. But looking at the detailed data there’s a huge difference in the “quality” of support between the parties. As…
The latest ComRes phone poll for The Independent has Labour and the Tories level pegging on 37% which is the first tme since October 2010 that the red team has not been in the lead. This is only the second telephone survey since the May 5th elections and comes from the pollster that came in a respectable second place with its final AV poll. The LDs are down three to 12 while support for other parties, including the SNP, UKIP…
Ten weeks in Scottish politics – what are the lessons? I’ve been meaning to put up this chart for some time because I’m sure that the polling experience leading up to the Holyrood election on May 5th will be referred to time and time again. This shows the regional list where the changes were most pronounced. From a position just ten weeks before election day where Labour had a 14 point lead over the SNP voters on the day gave…
Ipsos-MORI Would the MORI method have produced a different picture? Much has been made in the past week of Michael Ashcroft’s massive poll in which he sought to identify the issues that the Tories need to focus upon if they are to win a majority. He highlighted two policy strands: – the NHS and crime/law and order and it’s on the latter that there’s been much focus in recent days with the strong suggestion being that being “tough” is the…
Guardian ..” let’s remember he (Ed Miliband) already has a five- or six-point lead in most of the recent opinion polls..” – Jackie Ashley Guardian May 22 Mike Smithson