Betfair Politics Are the markets right after YouGov? Precisely one month to go before the ballot papers go out and my reading is that this is a 60-40 battle with the chances at the moment erring slightly more to Dave than to Ed. The YouGov poll was not quite decisive enough for David – a mood that seems to be prevailing on the betting markets. I’m not as convinced as some by the theory that Ed will scoop up the…
Is last night going to aid or hinder its survival? It’s the big question in British politics – how long will the coalition last? No doubt we’ll all have our own views which might have evolved following the revelations that came out in last night’s programme on what happened in those five days after the election. I am talking with one of the big spread betting firms about them establishing a “number of coalition weeks” market and have been asking…
YouGov – First round poll Candidate Members Unions MPs/MEPs Electoral College David Miliband 38 34 39 37 Ed Miliband 32 26 30 29 Diane Abbott 13 17 5 12 Andy Burnham 10 13 12 12 Ed Balls 7 11 14 11 So punters seem to have been getting this right The first YouGov poll members of those able to vote in the Labour leadership election, is just out and suggests that David Miliband is heading for victory. The older brother…
Was it his inaction that made the coalition possible? Lots of things are popping up ahead of tonight’s big programme on the BBC telling the story of how the coalition came about. The presenter, Nick Robinson, has a long piece in the Telegraph giving us a flavour of what to expect. “..The Tory leadership was well prepared for a hung parliament. They had analysed the overlaps and the gaps between the Conservative and Lib Dem manifestos so that a day…
Should Straw be careful about the “gerrymandering” charge? Every so often I find myself having to explain to non-election anoraks why it is that Labour can secure an overall majority with 2.7% more votes while the Tories need a margin of 11.2%. Generally their eyes glaze over as I talk about differential turnouts etc but the point they grasp instantly is that Labour-held seats have, on average, smaller electorates than Tory or LD-held ones. This is one of the things…
Pollster/publication Date CON LAB LD YouGov/Sun 26/07/10 42 35 15 MORI/Reuters 25/07/10 40 38 14 ICM/Guardian 25/07/10 38 34 19 YouGov/Sun 21/07/10 44 35 13 ComRes/Independent 27/06/10 40 31 18 YouGov/Sunday Times 25/06/10 43 36 16 ICM/Sunday Telegraph 24/06/10 41 35 16 YouGov/Sun 24/06/10 43 34 17 Populus/Times 23/06/10 39 33 18 YouGov/Sun 23/06/10 42 34 17 YouGov/Sun 22/06/10 41 37 15 YouGov/Sun 21/06/10 41 33 18 Ipsos-MORI/Reuters 20/06/10 39 31 19 ICM/Guardian 20/06/10 39 31 21 YouGov/Sunday Times 18/06/10…
Guardian Have the figures been published inadvertently? My understanding is that the Guardian might be holding over its latest ICM poll because of its Afgan leaks coverage but thanks to Tim on the previous thread we can make a good guess at the numbers anyway. For it appears that the latest numbers, based on polling over the weekend, are included on the interactive graphic which I’ve reproduced above. Last time, nearly five weeks ago, it was C39-L31-LD21 – and from…
What now for the man who walked across Afghanistan? One of the developing stories this afternoon is a grovelling apology to his constituents from the new MP who is fifth favourite to become next Tory leader. Ex-army officer, diplomat, old Etonian and alum of Balliol College Oxford, Rory Stewart has had one write-up after another since winning the Penrith and Borders seat at the election. Unfortunately in one of the latest, an interview with the Scottish Sun, he’s gone a…