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Category: WHITE HOUSE RACE

The Trump Presidency – are we about to start the end days?

The Trump Presidency – are we about to start the end days?

This time tomorrow things could be very different for him If the polls have got this right then overnight we could see what is a relatively rare event in US politics – when a sitting President fails to get re-elected after a first term. It might not be that we get enough results to come to that conclusion for a day or so but you can sure that the legion of US political commentators will be examining every small move…

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On the eve of the election UK punters still give Trump a 33% chance

On the eve of the election UK punters still give Trump a 33% chance

We have seen enough of this Betdata.io chart over the past months and the striking thing is how consistent the betting support has been for Donald Trump. Even though he’s been falling short by quite a margin in the polls punters in the UK seem much more ready to think he will actually hold on than other forecasters. My guess is that we will not see much change here until the first results start coming in overnight tomorrow and we…

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Trump’s extraordinary on the day voting gamble

Trump’s extraordinary on the day voting gamble

For this to work it requires a huge GOTV operation and overcoming COVID fears Just about the whole world is aware by now of how Trump intends to declare that the election was rigged against him. He’s attached a special premium to those who vote on the day compared with those 94,006,161 Americans who have already cast their ballots either by voting in person or be using the mail. His first big problem is COVID itself which at the end…

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The money shifts back to Biden on Betfair’s £240m next President market

The money shifts back to Biden on Betfair’s £240m next President market

The final weekend before Tuesday’s election and a lot of activity on the UK betting markets where punters had been viewing Trump’s chances quite a bit better than the US data analysts. Above is the latest Betdata.io chart showing the Betfair exchange market where a colossal £241,037,171 has now been traded. I’m now focusing on state betting where the polling shows Biden being very competitive but where UK punters, as I have been reporting, are putting more on Trump. I’ve…

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WH2020: Key state turnout as percentage of votes cast

WH2020: Key state turnout as percentage of votes cast

One of the extraordinary things about the the American election on Tuesday is the level of early voting. This is partly being driven by the efforts of the Republicans to curtail it and of course ongoing suggestions that Trump will try to steal the election in some form. The chart above is based on data from the the excellent election project site which is gathering huge amount of data and regular updates. The States I’ve chosen to include in the…

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The battle for Florida: Where UK punters are betting that the polls are wrong

The battle for Florida: Where UK punters are betting that the polls are wrong

Above is the latest polling average for Florida from Nate Silver’s site where, as can be seen, Biden has been enjoying a small but significant lead. Yet when we look at the betting a different trend appears. This of the Betfair market from Betdata and Trump has been odds on favourite for quite some time. On the face of it a bet on Biden at anything longer than evens is great value – yet that doesn’t seem to be happening….

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Four days to go before election day and UK punters still rate Trump as a 34% chance

Four days to go before election day and UK punters still rate Trump as a 34% chance

On the biggest political betting market of all time, as the Smarkets chart shows, Biden is rated as a 65% chance which given the polling and the other election predictors looks amazingly generous. The latest forecast from the Economist has Biden at 95% while Nate Silver’s site has the former VP on 89%. His national polling average has Biden on 52% with Trump on 43.2%. The state polling is in the main looked good for Biden with Florida, where there…

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US Election Night: The Ten Counties We Need to Watch (Part One of Two)

US Election Night: The Ten Counties We Need to Watch (Part One of Two)

US Election Day (which is, I suppose, a misnomer given most votes have now been cast) is just five days away. Here – in order of reporting – are the first five of the ten counties punters need to watch in order to correctly estimate the likely election result. Dixville Notch – Tuesday about 5:05am UK timeFirst in the nation to report (probably). There will be seven to ten votes cast. Last time around, Clinton got 4, Trump 2, Romney…

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