Could he just squeeze in? The latest YouGov London poll for the Evening Standard is just out and has Boris only 3% ahead on first preferences. That margin is what the US media would call a “statistical dead heat”. Clearly, if YouGov have got this right, this battle is far closer than the other pollsters who’ve been covering it are making out. Before the weekend ComRes had a Boris 1st preference lead of 9% with Survation recording 11.2%. Hopefully they’ll…
Betfair Politics Don’t ignore YouGov’s great record in Mayoral elections With the last two Mayoral polls showing first preference leads of 9% and 11.2% for Boris it’s hardly surprising that on this final weekend the money has been going on the incumbent. I’m being a tad more cautious. YouGov’s final polls in both 2004 and 2008 got it correct to within 1% and there should be a new survey out tomorrow. Remember that four years ago the other pollsters had…
How can he compete with the likable Boris? There’s a new ComRes poll for the London mayoralty which has, in the final two forced choice, Boris beating Ken by 53% to 47%. More interesting, given the importance of leader ratings in predicting outcomes, are the like him/like his party responses with ComRes using the format that was developed by Ipsos-MORI. As can be seen Boris has a massive likability lead over Ken and if the official LAB man makes the…
Meet my 250/1 long shot for City Hall Have you noticed how over the past few days there’s increasing talk about the challenge from the ex-senior civil servant with powerful friends, Siobhan Benita, for Mayor of London? This is from a two page report from Rachel Sylvestor in the Times over the weekend: Siobhan Benita is the one to watch. This former civil servant who resigned from the department of health over Andrew Lansley’s NHS reforms is attracting support from…
But will Boris be hit by the national Tory collapse? Exactly four weeks from today six million Londoners will get the chance to vote on who will be their elected mayor for the next four years. The is the single biggest election in the British political calendar and all three parties will be striving for a good showing. For the Tories this could be their one bright spot on the night. With Labour moving to double digit national poll ratings…
Is this his plan to get Cameron’s job? In an article published at midnight in Prospect magazine the mayor of London refuses to rule out the possibility of standing as an MP during a second term as mayor. It’s believed that this is the first he has raised doubts over what he would do if he does secure a second term. The article quotes Johnson as saying: “Look, what I have said is that I won’t go on [as mayor]…
Will the police always come out on top? Following the previous post about the reported police reaction to the PM’s criticisms over their handling of the riots I’ve dug up the above YouGov polling that was published on Wednesday. The question was: “Thinking about the recent riots in London and other cities in Britain. How well or badly do you think each of the following are dealing with situation? – The police/Cameron/Boris?” Things have moved on sharply in the past…
Could another candidate exploit the incumbent’s weaknesses? Perhaps the first election where we’ll the first impact of the riots will be that for London Mayor in May. The Tory incumbent, Mr. Johnson, looked far from sure-footed on his first day back after his truncated holiday and got booed at several locations when visiting the riot scenes. This has been the worst break-down in public order in living memory and there might be more to come. Boris’s failure to get back…