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Stodge gives his analysis on London London is home to 75 of the 650 Constituencies in the forthcoming General Election, an increase of two from 2019. At the last election, Labour “won” London with 48% of the vote, the Conservatives got 32%, the Liberal Democrats 15%, the Greens 3% and the Brexit Party 1.5%. This, however, produced no net change with Labour winning 49 seats (including Putney, their only gain in England from the Conservatives), the Conservatives winning 21 seats…

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Political earthquakes are infrequent, but they do happen. In 2015, in Scotland, the SNP swept the board, taking 56 of the 59 seats on offer. Labour – once dominant – dropped from 41 seats to just a single one, despite winning almost a quarter of the vote. First Past the Post can be cruel. In Canada, in 1993, the Progressive Conservatives contrived to lose 154 of their 156 seats. They went from government to fifth place, dropping behind not just…

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We’ve all forgotten (what with the excitement of Starmer v Sunak), but the US Presidential election continues… and on Betfair exchange, Trump has moved into a commanding lead. Looking at these odds, what stand out to me is not that Trump is odds on (we can argue whether he or Biden should be narrow favorite), but just how big the gap. The polls remains pretty static: Biden and Trump are neck and neck. The Republicans have an advantage in the…

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• See “The Wikipedia Elections Edit War”, https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=OVIl_DJl5NU INTRODUCTION During the Measurement series I have argued that concepts we believe to be universal and eternal are simply not. I discussed the limitations of political positions and the definition of elites, and those articles were fairly straightforward. But now let’s look at a thing that we all think we understand and yet don’t: the concept of a political party. THE LIST See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Libertas_Spain See also: https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/National_List_(Italy) The simplest form of…

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Unless Starmer or Sunak soil themselves on stage I expect very little change to the market. TSE

Prior to Donald Trump’s conviction there was polling showing that a significant number of Americans wouldn’t vote for a convicted felon and this polling is an artefact of that. I expect polling like this will go further south for Trump once we get to his sentencing hearing. TSE

One thing I remember about the YouGov MRPs from 2017 and 2019 is the first ones were closer to the actual results and I wonder if that trend will continue in 2024? These MRPs were conducted before Farage’s announcement, like Sir John Curtice I think is ultimately sub-optimal for the Tories. TSE

Like many on here, I have spent some time sifting the constituency markets looking for value bets. Boundary changes mean that Ordnance Survey’s excellent Election Maps site is required in addition to Wikipedia. I’ve generally stayed away from the Conservative-Labour battlegrounds and focussed on seats where it’s not clear who will be the main challenger to the Conservatives or the SNP. However, I have found two seats that provide interesting case studies for how our politics have realigned in the…

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