The YouGov poll has had an impact on punters
Graph from Betdata.io TSE
What if it’s not close ?
Cards on the table, I think Kamala Harris will be the next President of the United States. At the end of the Democratic National Convention, it’s apparent that the handover of the baton from Biden to Harris has gone more smoothly than anyone predicted, or had a right to expect. A party, more used to thinking of itself as a fractious coalition, is waking up to headlines which declare “Democrats in Array”, and is evidently enjoying the experience. And Harris…
Tory members want Badenoch but will she make the final two?
My strategy for laying Kemi Badenoch in the race to succeed Sunak is that Tory MPs will ensure she isn’t in the final two but if that assumption turns out to be wrong then I will be going to the poorhouse. YouGov have an excellent track record in Tory leadership elections so I trust this polling implicitly, in some of the other head to heads it shows Robert Jenrick might be misunderestimated by the betting markets TSE
Harris is the favourite again
If Harris and Trump bring the same energy that they both showed last night to the debates then Trump is going to struggle, badly. TSE
Mind the enthusiasm gap
This polling isn’t atypical and it makes me confident that the Democratic Party are going to at least win the popular vote in November and more than likely the electoral college Kamala Harris looks like an inspired choice, just look at how enthusiasm has surged after she became the nominee. My theory is everybody loves an elite West coast liberal lawyer. TSE
A real boost for Trump
Much like the time Captain Renault was shocked to discovered gambling was taking place in Rick’s Café Américain, I am similarly shocked to learn that RFK Jr’s, a man backed by some of Trump’s biggest supporters, is set to pull out of the White House race because the polls now show RFK Jr is taking more votes from Trump than the Democratic Party. I suspect the benefit to Trump will be minimal in votes but in a close election minimal…
The latest Tory leadership betting
In exactly a fortnight Tory MPs start voting in this election under the exhaustive ballot voting system which can be described as quasi-AV. TSE
Betfair punters remember this is a close race
I have to admit this has happened sooner than I expected, I thought the Harris lead on Betfair would widen this week due to the convention then narrow in September. I’ll reiterate this election is Trump’s election to lose but the momentum, pace Betfair, is with Harris. TSE