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I feel like the Ancient Mariner boring anybody I meet telling just how bad it is looking for the Tories. Two MRPs today are just further proof that the Tories are about to experience their Götterdämmerung on July 4th. This is the stand out observation from the WeThink MRP ‘This means the Conservatives substantially underperform uniform swing. While Reform takes the most Conservative votes, Labour reaps the rewards. In every constituency, voters are taking the opportunity to kick the government’….

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The two phone pollsters Ipsos and Survation give largely the same results which are inline with the shellacking the online pollsters indicate. The Ipsos satisfaction ratings show the pickle Sunak and the Tories are in and given that Ipsos have been polling for nearly fifty years so allows to put the current numbers into context. The worry for Starmer and Labour is that historically his ratings are quite poor and like Boris Johnson he’s only winning mostly because his opponents…

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The Press Association have published their expected declaration times which is useful if you’re not planning to stay up all night long. The early results may give us indication if the MRPs are right and which one is looking to be the gold standard of MRPs. Five out of the first eight seats expected to declare are in the North East of England plus Basildon & Billericay and they be a very good indicator if Reform are surging to a…

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Longstanding readers of PB know I am not a fan of constituency polls because it is very hard to get a representative sample and in 2015, outside of Scotland, the constituency polls were as accurate as an American war movie. I am surprised by this polling as I expected Corbyn to win, he’s been the MP for the area for 41 years and there is anecdotal stories that some people in the constituency think he is still the Labour candidate…

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Many of us have been pointing out for a while that under SIr Keir Starmer Labour’s vote efficiency is improving to truly impressive levels but there is a potential downside as highlighted in the second tweet. Once the results come through on July the 5th and the results show a massive Labour majority in terms of seats but on very small majorities in terms of votes that could see what I discussed yesterday about Starmer winning a massive majority which…

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I like looking at the gender splits in voting intentions because sometimes they give an insight that allows you to make a decent profit on the betting markets. In the run up to the Scottish independence referendum Alex Salmond and Scottish independence whilst popular in absolute terms there was often a gender gap which saw men more supportive of Salmond and Scottish independence whereas women weren’t. There are other examples which some have put down to women being more cautious…

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With the Westminster General Election upcoming next month [July], We are all wondering which seats will be close and which constituencies are foregone conclusions. Within Part 1, I will analyse and predict the final standings for the following areas : Belfast South, Belfast West, East Derry / Londonderry, Foyle, Mid Ulster, Newry & Armagh, North Antrim, Upper Bann & West Tyrone. Belfast South : Kate Nicholl [Alliance] is one of the most interesting candidates in this election. The former Lord Mayor is highly popular and…

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Think of Scotland, and places like Berwickshire, Roxburgh and Selkirk or East Renfrewshire which have swung massively from LD to SNP then SNP to Con all in the space of a few years or East Renfrewshire which has got Lab to SNP then SNP to Con then back to SNP. The Red Wall is likely to see the swings of 2019 reversed on a grand scale. With an uncertain world things can become worse if the appeasers/Russian shills sell out Ukraine I can…

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