The smart money seems to be moving to Kamala Harris as she rides a wave of Democratic party enthusiasm and her polling shows an edge in key swing states. Although one should always remember the old adage that no ordinary voter switches on to the candidates before Labor Day, there’s a feeling building that this may well be Trump’s last stand. A successful convention this week and a big speech by the Vice President may further secure the polls. Seems…
I’ve been saying for a while the value might be with James Cleverly, somebody I respect said Cleverly could win in the way William Hague won in 1997 by being everybody’s second choice in the early rounds. This polling commissioned and released by Team Cleverly is a good move, in the past we’d hear about private polling showing X which could be dismissed as spin. Under BPC rules this polling has to be published by Wednesday. I would prefer to…
The people of Clacton who voted for Farage last month will be glad he is continuing his battle against the wealthy global elites and putting Clacton on the map. When the next general election takes place I am sure Farage will be able to use his income from GB News and trips like this as a positive, the sums involved will be considered chickenfeed by the voters of Clacton. Perhaps with all this money Nigel Farage can finally afford a…
This time exactly four weeks ago Joe Biden was the presumptive Democratic Party nominee and Donald Trump was the overwhelming favourite to win November’s election but as we can see things can change in the polls and with that betting chart from the last month. I think the biggest change is just how incoherent and old Trump looks now, no wonder he wanted Biden to be his opponent. Saying he is much better looking than Kamala Harris isn’t going to…
Inevitability her rivals have seized upon this. It is interesting this is yet another negative story about Kemi Badenoch. Somebody clearly doesn’t want her to succeed Sunak, and who can blame them? If she were to win I think she will turn out to be the female IDS and deposed before she could lead the Tories at the general election. TSE
It is still too close to call in my opinion. Harris needs to focus on getting the 10% of 2020 Dems who are currently planning on voting for Trump to come back to the Dems. On Betfair Harris and Trump are 52% and 46% chances of winning, my expectations in ascending order of likelihood in terms of electoral college votes TSE
Considering the rather low vote share on a very low turnout it isn’t surprising that 62% of the public do not care who wins the Tory leadership, what must worry the Tories is that over a third of people who voted Tory last month also do not care who will succeed Sunak. As a lifelong Tory I am wondering if this is how the Liberals started feeling in the early part of the twentieth century as they were eclipsed. A…
I don’t know why but I feel weirdly passionate about the pronunciation of scone. TSE