A recently announced ceasefire has brought a (temporary) end to what has been dubbed the Gaza war.

I would argue that this is just the latest chapter in a war that has now raged for 75 years on and off.

Timeline of key events

1917 – Balfour declaration supports the establishment of a homeland for the Jews

1948 – Creation of Israel and the first Arab-Israeli War

1967 – Six-Day War

1973 – Yom Kippur War

1978 – First Israeli invasion of Lebanon

1993 – Oslo accords

2007 – Hamas take control of Gaza

Map of proposed Israeli and Palestinian states 1948

With hindsight, the Oslo accords look like a massive missed opportunity when you compare the last 30 years of conflict vs. the steady progress that has been made in Northern Ireland.

We now seem to have now reached a regular pattern of events. 

• Hamas or Hezbollah attack Israel, leading to a number of Israeli deaths
• Israel then attacks with greater force, leading to a higher number of Palestinian deaths
• It then calms down for a while

I would call this the misery-go-round. An endless cycle of pain and suffering that never seems to lead anywhere.

So let’s review what each side has achieved in the last 75 years.

Palestinian side

There has been much discussion whether the “from the river” chant is anti-Semitic. I take issue with the use of the word “will” as in “will be free” and how anyone can claim that.

The reality is that the Palestinian side has comprehensively failed to achieve anything of note. Sure, they have caused pain and suffering for individual Israelis, but on a strategic level they have gone backwards. In 1948, Gaza and the West Bank were fully controlled by Arab powers in the shape of Egypt and Jordan.

Furthermore, in 1948, the Palestinians were supported by the full armies of Syria, Jordan and Egypt and now have to rely on militia groups (however well-armed) like Hezbollah. In fact, Egypt and Jordan have signed peace treaties with Egypt and the Egyptians have kept their border with Gaza firmly closed despite Palestinian suffering.

The bravado of groups like Hamas hides the fact that the Palestinian situation continues to get worse.

Israeli side

Israel has achieved more than the Palestinians simply because  they are still standing strong.

However, what they have failed to achieve is a sustainable peace. It feels like Israel actively embraces the motto of Millwall FC – no-one likes us and we don’t care. The IDF have been very effective at killing Israel’s enemies. They have also been very effective at creating new enemies.

The Israelis should pay attention to what recently happened in Nagorno Karabakh. This was an enclave of Armenians surrounded by Azerbaijan. At the end of the Soviet Union, the 2 sides went to war. The army of Artsakh was temporarily able to win their independence and even occupied parts of Azerbaijan proper with the support of the Russians. However, with Russia occupied elsewhere, they withdrew support and the Armenian position collapsed almost overnight.

The lesson is that Israels’s current military strength could be vulnerable to a changed geopolitical situation. The Knesset should consider if they want to make a sustainable peace then they are not going to get a much more favourable position.

Israel should also consider that the Holocaust has been a key driver of support from the Baby Boomer Generation, however, the last Holocaust survivors are likely to die out within the next 20-30 years.

So what are the possible solutions?

One-state solutions

• Israelis and Palestinians live side by side in peace and harmony – yeah right. Although worth noting, this is the official policy of the US Green Party amongst others.
• Bosnia solution – A highly federalised country with 2 sub entities. Hard to see this working as Israel would have to give up security control.
• Winner takes all – let’s make no bones about it – we’re talking ethnic cleansing here. The Palestinians are not able to achieve this, as much as they might want to. This solution would in part cover what Trump proposes for Gaza. However, where would the Palestinians go? Trump says that Egypt and Jordan should take them but that risks destabilizing those countries. And if the Palestinians get nothing, then why would they abandon the fight? At best, it feels like a short-term win for Israel.

A two-state solution

This is the solution most talked about by the global political class, but what does it actually mean? It is likely to require very heavy sacrifices on both sides.

Yitzhak Rabhin and Yasser Arafat shaking hands – 1993

Israeli side

• Israel would need to accept the 1948 border and demolish all settlements in the West Bank.
• Israel would need to demolish parts of its security fence that run through Palestinian territory.
• Israel would need to accept that it can no longer carry out security missions / reprisals directly and that Arab countries would need to take the lead in dealing with terrorists
• Israel would need to accept that in the short-term security might be worse due to terror groups trying to scupper any peace deal (e.g. Real IRA)

Palestinian side

• The Palestinians need to accept Israel’s right to exist
• The Palestinians need to realise that terrorism is a dead end
• The Palestinians need to accept that the vast majority of refugees cannot return to Israel and will have to resettle elsewhere

On the last point, you might think I am taking the Israeli side, but it is simple logic. The Israelis will never let 5 million Palestinians return to Israel voluntarily and the Palestinians cannot force them. So the alternatives are to have generations of Palestinians continue to be born, get married and die in refugee camps or to help people move on.

It’s worth adding some demographic context here. Gaza had a prewar population of 2 million and is about the size of Rutland; the West Bank has 3 million and is similar in size to Norfolk. Even Israel itself has 10 million and is about the size of Wales.

The Global Community

For many politicians, a Palestinian state is the end goal they are focused on, but for any peace to work, such a state needs to thrive. A Palestinian state has the ingredients to be successful: Gaza has sunshine and beaches; the West Bank has historic religious sites.

• the World will need to invest to rebuild Gaza and the West Bank (this resembles the Trump plan but with the Palestinians staying in Gaza)
• the World will need to take Palestinian refugees
• the World will need to guarantee Israel’s security and take the lead in eradicating terrorism

So can it be done? It’s a hard path and there’s no doubt a sustainable peace would require massive sacrifices all round. What’s the alternative, though? Another 25, 50 or 100 years on the misery-go-round?

Gareth of the Vale