Earlier on this year I thought abortion would be the key factor that would help the Dems retain the White House next month as it would drive their base to turnout and vote but the closer we get to the election it’s the economy, stupid, then immigration which favours Donald Trump. TSE
My concern is that even if Harris is tied or even slightly ahead then Trump wins the electoral college. TSE
I still think Harris remains value. TSE
All eyes are on the Presidency, but the reality is that it is far from the only election this cycle: there are (one higher than normal) 34 Senate races. And, boy, is this one interesting. As a reminder, the Democrats (along with associated Independents) currently control the Senate by 51 to 49. And there a *lot* of close elections this year. There are three Senate races currently held by the Democrats in States where Trump won in 2020: West Virginia,…
The charts are getting redder. No one is giving the Electoral College to Harris now, the best forecasts are unclear results from Nate Silver and electoral-vote, with differing states tied in their models. And in the national polling, the movement is in Trump’s direction, even if Harris is leading slightly. The Senate picture is different (a little, not a lot) – after years of being told by pundits that split ticket voting was a thing of the past, it looks…
On Saturday I did partake in a YouGov poll of Tory members, the last poll had Badenoch defeating Jenrick by the cursed ratio of 52% to 48%. If a new poll shows something similar or Jenrick ahead then I’d expect this market to be jolted. But on the last available evidence Jenrick represents some value. TSE
The public were wrong about the Lib Dems after the fashion as David Cameron’s black widow strategy worked brilliantly a few months later whilst it took the Lib Dems nearly a decade to recover. There are absolutely no epistemological problems saying that UKIP have utterly faded. TSE
As a young Tory in London in the early 2000s this is eerily familiar. TSE