These are the polls I was expecting to see after the Democratic Party convention. My strategy is that Harris will be the favourite by the time of the first debate and if she comes through that unscathed she should maintain a lead on Betfair and the polls, that finding from Pennsylvania should have Trump Quakering. This is still a very close election though. TSE
It’s not been a perfect campaign so far Tom Tugendhat, particularly with the turd incident but I do think he still makes the final two. Once Mel Stride is eliminated Tugendhat is the only one campaigning for the One Nation vote, so his odds will look very different next week as Tory MPs start voting next Wednesday. TSE
I suspect Starmer may get a bit of a polling boost if he seeks to undo Brexit. TSE
If Kamala Harris not only wins in November but wins bigly then it will be in part due to this surge in voter registration. I think having referenda on abortion in several states i vdriving this and that should help Harris. That said, registering to vote is one thing, voting is another thing. TSE
William Hill have a market up on whether Donald Trump will replace J.D. Vance as his running mate, nothing Trump would do would surprise me but we are close to the point where Vance’s name would go on to the ballot papers and cannot be removed. Ditching Vance would be Trump admitting he made a boo boo in appointing the cat hating weirdo which is unlike the self confessed pussy grabber. So a 4% return in a few months might…
I am generally characterised as a gobby bastard so when I am left speechless something epically bad must have happened. Liz Truss trying to fill the black hole caused by the markets being spooked by her special fiscal operation was to considering scrapping all NHS cancer treatment to save money. Normally I’d dismiss this story as a silly season story but the fact so many people are prepared to go on the record about this to Sir Anthony Seldon makes…
The primary reason I have been expecting Donald Trump to win in November was the economy an area he normally led Biden then Harris however it might appear that lead is ephemeral thanks to this polling from YouGov. Trump and his confederates have tried to mischaracterise the Harris/Walz economic agenda as unabashed communism yet we can see those policies enjoy wide support. Perhaps it will be the economy that wins it for Kamala Harris. TSE
Ordinarily when a Labour leader polls circa 33% at a general election it triggers a leadership election however in one of those statistical quirks like Sir Donald Bradman’s test average, no matter how many times you look at it thinking it must be a mistake it turns out be right, Starmer won 411 seats and a 174 seat majority with a 33.7% share of the vote. The story in yesterday’s Times about Starmer looking to change the voting system for…