The German election thread
I am intrigued to see if the interventions by the new American administration starts impacting election outcomes in other countries, such as Germany and Canada, we won’t have long to wait to see with the former. TSE
Oh Bobby J, hoist with his own petard
Whilst your own bio isn’t a CV it does blunt the Tory attacks on the likes of Reeves and Reynolds, it also reinforces the impression that both front benches are a seraglio of eunuchs. TSE
PB Predictions Competition 2025 – The Entries
For those curious about the PB Prediction Competition, the full list of entries can be found in this spreadsheet. PB Prediction Competition 2025 – Entries Most of the questions won’t be settled until the end of the year, although we do have one which should be answered very soon: Question 7. Number of seats won by the AfD in the 2025 German Federal Election. For Question 7. we have a low entry of 88 AfD seats, a high of 200,…
The Lib Dems are carving out a strong anti Trump position
The Lib Dems are setting themselves as the one GB wide party who are unambiguously publicly anti Trump which may lead to a polling boost for them if Trump’s appeasement of Putin/sellout of Ukraine continues, Tim Farron shows how they are utilising that approach. The intervention from Liz Truss also confirms that Kemi Badenoch was absolutely right when she wanted Liz Truss to shut up TSE
Farage remains the favourite to become our next Prime Minister
TSE
Why Farage might be next out
Previously in this market I thought given the structure of Reform it was unlikely that Farage could be ousted but now the party is like the traditional parties it is rather more possible following today’s announcement. With a significant element of Reform voters being rather more pro Trump/pro Putin’s aggression in Ukraine and if Farage does denounce Trump then it is possible for Farage to be ousted, I still Badenoch is the one i would back if i was forced…
Reform’s Trump love presents problems for Farage
If Nigel Farage wants to become Prime Minister, ceteris paribus, he needs to polling north of 30% and if he doesn’t denounce Donald Trump’s betrayal of Ukraine then I suspect his and Reform’s polling will go down and if he does repudiate Trump significant numbers of Reform voters will be annoyed. I am not sure how Farage squares this political circle. TSE
Oh dear, oh dear
When comparing Sir Keir Starmer to other recent Prime Ministers then it isn’t very good news when in the head to heads he only betters Liz Truss who was the Derby County 2007/08 of UK Prime Ministers. The head to head I find the most fascinating is that Boris Johnson is barely beating Sir Keir, compared to the much larger lead that David Cameron enjoys, which bodes ill for those who want to se a Boris Johnson comeback. The good…