politicalbetting.com

The finding published this month from Ipsos at the top us this pieces helps us refine what parts of the economy are key benchmarks for the voters. Abstract concepts such as GDP won’t win elections but inflation and interest rates will. The tweet from Redfield & Wilton from 2023 indicates that the great British public are, to put it kindly, are quite dim* when it comes to inflation, so if inflation does go down the public might not realise it….

Read More Read More

This polling from Ipsos isn’t surprising, plenty of us expected Starmer’s statesmanship to see his ratings improve and Farage’s ratings to fall (and Ed Davey’s unambiguous criticisms of Trump would see a boost too.) Longstanding readers know that Ipsos are considered the gold standard when it comes leader ratings and in the head to heads Starmer will be happy that he leads both Farage & Badenoch in the net ratings. The person who should be most worried is Rachel Reeves….

Read More Read More

I know it is early in the morning and I know it is Donald Trump but who exactly will be paying the tariffs? This level of idiocy/economic illiteracy has the potential to give Starmer & Reeves a get out of jail card when it comes to the economy, this time around ‘It started America’ might actually have some credence. TSE

After seeing this polling I wonder if Nicola Sturgeon is regretting her announcement about standing down from Holyrood next year. I think Sturgeon will find retirement not all caviar and champagne as there will be regret that on her part that she didn’t make more progress on indyref2 during the optimum time of the Boris Johnson premiership as Scotland was dragged out of the EU against her will. Sadly Betfair are yet to put up their markets on next year’s…

Read More Read More

TSE

Once more, could a British led European alliance be the key to victory? The key reason I thought Donald Trump would win last year was the economy, so these types of findings are key to who wins the midterms and 2028 election. Assuming free and fair elections are held in 2026 and 2028 then if I were a GOP strategist I would be very worried. TSE

Assuming there are free and fair elections in 2028 then I think there there is value in backing Senator Mark Kelly to win the presidency in 2028. He has a compelling backstory, a former veteran of the Gulf War, an astronaut, husband of Gabby Giffords, annoyer of Elon Musk, Senator, and as we can see from the clips above a pretty good questioner of the idiocy of the second Trump presidency. I also think he would carry the key state…

Read More Read More

If the answer is yes to the question in the headline then this Ladbrokes market is for you. TSE