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Leaving aside the unpopularity of leaving the ECHR one aspect that is likely to trip up Badenoch’s plans to leave the ECHR is now to deal with the Good Friday Agreement which has the ECHR embedded into it. Unless she comes up with a plausible answer on how her plans will impact the peace deal that solved that religious and sectarian violence and terrorism that scarred the United Kingdom for decades. Her Northern Ireland error earlier on this week just…

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I actually believe Robert Jenrick, after a fashion. My expectation is that the likes of Jenrick and others who want to replace Kemi Badenoch will wait until after next May’s local and devolved elections to let her take the responsibility for the defeats. The expectation is that the Tories next year will experience a humiliation that normally is associated with hiring six dozen dominatrices concurrently which something Jenrick and others will not want to be responsible for. So rather than…

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Last week YouGov released the latest iteration of their MRP (Multi-level Regression and Post-stratification) survey. For anyone not aware, this is a survey combining data from 13,000 voters and demographic data to predict all the seats in Great Britain (except for the Speaker’s seat of Chorley). YouGov have had splendid success with their MRP and correctly called 92% of seats at the 2024 election (also helping my betting returns). That said, we should point out a couple of caveats as…

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The odds continue to lengthen for the Education Secretary to win the deputy leadership contest, she has just three weeks to turn this around. TSE

A few days ago I speculated about the possibility about the Tories sinking to fourth if not fifth in the polls but there is also possibility that Labour could also crater to those levels. If that were to happen I expect it would be after the budget. Voters are expecting tax increases which a plurality think are unfair. To be charitable to Rachel Reeves she has only two flaws as Chancellor, everything she does and everything she says, I have…

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This morning I focussed on a poll from Ipsos which showed Labour has the potential to gain the most from tactical voting and this polling from YouGov will help reinforce that. Calling Reform policies racist might not be damaging for Starmer and Labour. A big shout out to the 5% of Reform voters who admit Reform voters are racist. TSE

This polling from Ipsos in my humble opinion brings good news for Labour, around the time of this polling Ipsos had Reform polling 34% and Labour polling 22% which isn’t out of line with other pollsters. As we can see in the above polling when voters are asked to choose who would they prefer to form the next government and Starmer’s Labour takes the lead whereas Reform are getting barely above their voting intention figure. If Labour are going to…

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I’ve not been able to watch Starmer’s speech due to work commitments so cannot comment upon it yet, a colleague observed earlier on they would expect Starmer to remind the country that he’s a lawyer. TSE