I haven’t watched the Veep debate in full but of the clips I have seen neither man had a gaffe and I’d probably make the result a draw but I’d give the win to Vance because he came in with very low expectations. TSE
Like Hezbollah it’s not been a great few days for Kemi Badenoch, she keeps on saying things that make her look in a very bad light. Punters have moved away from in this leadership contest today and moved to James Cleverly which is great news for everybody who followed my advice to lay her and/or back Cleverly at 7/1. She has tomorrow to turn things around otherwise her Kemi-kaze approach brings a divine wind to James Cleverly’s chances of winning…
As a football fan Sir Keir Starmer must feel like Erik ten Hag a man under pressure because things are going sub-optimal for him. Whilst this isn’t a voting intention poll what it does show that after not even three months in power the public would prefer the Tories who they booted out of office after fourteen years. People shouldn’t read too much into this poll, first of all there’s fifty-seven months left for Starmer to turn this around and…
YouGov have accurately predicted the winner of every Tory leadership election this century when it has gone to Tory members so I place great faith in their figures. Sky News report that Robert Jenrick is within touching distance of Kemi Badenoch after a surge in his support, according to an exclusive Sky News poll of Tory members. The latest YouGov survey of Conservative members for Sky News suggests there is a path to victory for all four candidates, although Tom…
Some movement this week, although still not much – and not very consistent. 538 have moved North Carolina from a slight Trump edge to a slight Harris edge, which widens her margin of victory in the Electoral College.Real Clear Politics, however have moved Pennsylvania from Harris to Trump, which has the effect of shifting their prediction to a Trump win 281-257. How are they managing to swim against the tide on PA? By ignoring the Morning Consult/Bloomberg poll which puts…
This week is key to the Tory leadership contest as the four candidates make their pitch at conference, as we saw in 2005 one good speech can upend a race. Sadly for Kemi Badenoch conference so far has gone suboptimally for her with her comments about maternity pay which her opponents have seized upon as her Andrea Leadsom which has meant Badenoch has to spend most of yesterday explaining her comments, and to quote Ronald Reagan, if you’re explaining then…
It is an interesting parallel. TSE
For some time many of us have derided Rasmussen for their highly partisan ways in a way that seems alien to us this side of the pond where the British Polling Council rules apply. This week’s story about how Rasmussen’s election law breaking coordination with the Trump camp is no surprise to me but it does have important betting implications. Nate Silver’s website continues to include Rasmussen in their averages whereas 538 removed Rasmussen some time ago, if you’re betting…