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Category: Betting

Crime & Constraints

Crime & Constraints

When I was about eleven years old, my father bought a very in-vogue business book: The Goal. Being precocious, I read it. And then, about twenty years later I reread it. And then about ten years after that, I read it a third time. The story is a simple one: a man is a factory manager, and things are going badly, and they’re going badly because the factory isn’t efficient, and all the things he thinks increase efficiency decrease it….

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D’Hondt Cry For Me Argentina

D’Hondt Cry For Me Argentina

Sunday 26th October has one of the more interesting elections of the year, the Argentinian Mid-term Chamber of Deputies and Senate Elections. This is significant for Non-Argentinians in that as well as President Trump several UK Politicians, most notably Badenoch and Farage, are open admirers of President Milei’s programme of massive spending cuts to revive the economy. This is the first national electoral test for Milei since his programme was implemented. Argentina has a democratic system that in some ways…

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Going Round in Circles

Going Round in Circles

Perhaps the girls were simply invisible to them. Perhaps they believed that money has no smell. Well for a time it doesn’t. But eventually how you make money, the “services” it allows you to enjoy and who you associate with in order to make more money does smell. Badly. At which point, the authorities start saying that they do care very much indeed about the appalling stench caused by all the blind eye turning, though this is usually couched as…

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Plaid Cymru prove to be the big cheese in Caerphilly

Plaid Cymru prove to be the big cheese in Caerphilly

Last week I tipped Plaid Cymru to win this by-election because the polls were relatively close and that there was more centre-left votes to squeeze than there were on the right for Reform to squeeze. There are a few reasons why I still think Labour have a chance of winning the next general election is because of that, people will coalesce around who is best placed to defeat Reform. As I am still on holiday here’s some first thoughts on…

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Think Caerphilly before betting on this by-election

Think Caerphilly before betting on this by-election

Today sees the Caerphilly by-election and these are the latest odds from Ladbrokes and I think the value might be on backing Reform to poll 45% to 50% at 4/1. Last week’s Survation had them polling at 42% so a bit of sampling variation plus tactical voting from the Tories might push Reform into the 45% to 50% bracket. Whilst writing this piece I’ve also convinced myself the 50% might be worth a smaller stake too. TSE