There’s a market on a potential Runcorn & Helsby by-election
Ladbrokes have put up a market on a potential by election in Runcorn & Helsby following the local MP pleading guilty to connecting with a voter. I cannot see any value in this market. TSE
Standing shoulder to shoulder with Trump might not be very popular
I am quite intrigued by the age split with a strong correlation with age and favourability/unfavourability towards Trump. I think Trump will be an overall hindrance to Nigel Farage, particularly if and when tariffs hit the pockets of British voters. TSE
How long can Trump last?
The orange one will be back in the Oval Office today and Ladbrokes have a couple of betting markets related to his tenure. I do not expect Trump to be impeached and convicted during his second term because of the broad immunity the majority of SCOTUS have granted him. Secondly in language the the MAGA crowd would understand, the GOP are a bunch of beta cucks who would never try and convict Trump, primus inter pares is J.D. Vance who…
How long will Trump last today?
Ladbrokes have a market on the length of Trump’s speech today. In 2017 Trump delivered a 15 minute 1,433 word speech and he delivers a similar speech then the value is on the 14 to 16 minute market at 7/1 but if you expect him to ramble on and on then you might be interested in the 6/5 on 20 minutes or over. TSE
Fewer than one in ten people think Badenoch would make the best PM
Whilst there is a strong incumbency bias in best PM polling it is notable when a PM doesn’t consistently lead in this metric but what I find notable in this polling that Kemi Badenoch is a rounding error away from being fourth in what normally has been a two horse race for decades. Being ahead of Sir Ed Dacey by a mere 1% must sting for Badenoch. The good news for her is the 44% who say they are undecided,…
Go West!
When I first saw the map of the YouGov MRP I thought it looked like a map of the old West and East Germany. Alongside Canada, Germany will be the major election to bet on in 2025, like Canada I am not as knowledgable enough to bet considerable sums yet, so if you have any insights please share your thoughts in the comments. TSE
Sleazy does it
Political integrity is a lot like virginity, once it has gone it is very hard to get back. I am not sure which is the bigger achievement, 52% of your own voters think you are quite sleazy as the Tories have managed or 54% of the wider electorate thinking you are sleazy six months into government. TSE
It’s all gone a bit Liz Truss
The difference between now and the Truss interregnum is that Starmer and Reeves will be given time by their party to try and turn things around, we are potentially four and a half years from the next general election. TSE