On Saturday I did partake in a YouGov poll of Tory members, the last poll had Badenoch defeating Jenrick by the cursed ratio of 52% to 48%. If a new poll shows something similar or Jenrick ahead then I’d expect this market to be jolted. But on the last available evidence Jenrick represents some value. TSE
The public were wrong about the Lib Dems after the fashion as David Cameron’s black widow strategy worked brilliantly a few months later whilst it took the Lib Dems nearly a decade to recover. There are absolutely no epistemological problems saying that UKIP have utterly faded. TSE
As a young Tory in London in the early 2000s this is eerily familiar. TSE
The Tories need to make a net gain of 205 seats at the next election to win a majority of 2. The chart above shows the challenge the new Tory leader faces. Even if they make the sort of net gains Tony Blair won in 1997 it would still likely place the Tories as the second largest party (it would put the Tories on fewer seats than Labour won under Neil Kinnock in 1992.) If Starmer can win a majority…
This comparison will offend some of you, sorry. Also, if you are a supporter of either Trump or Hamas, maybe skip reading this. Most sensible people are both anti-Trump and anti-Hamas. But here’s the rub: I’d wager that many people who will put a cross next to Trump on November 5th are also anti-Trump, and many Palestinians that tolerate Hamas’ leadership are anti-Hamas. It’s just that, in both cases, the people in question cannot see a better option than to…
Removing bishops from the House of Lords is great step in stopping the UK being more like Iran (the other major nation that has unelected clergy in their parliament.) It is an amusing irony that 52% of voters in this poll that support the removal of our unelected religious rulers including a plurality of Tories. Given the widespread approval for removing the hereditaries then perhaps House of Lords reform might give Starmer a boost in the polls although that might…
Last night’s debate is set to be the only debate between the gruesome twosome that are Jenrick and Badenoch, so there’s not much opportunity for Jenrick to turn things around. Punters are clear who won last night. TSE
I could almost have sympathy for Rachel Reeves. The much hyped October budget approaches and whatever she does she will have the sound of wailing and the gnashing of teeth. It has been her misfortune to hang her hat on the OBR and thereby leave a vacuum on what she will do. Politics like nature hates a vacuum and in the self imposed silence all manner of conjecture has been given ample room to feed rumours and speculate on Armageddon. …