politicalbetting.com

The Guardian report that The online wager platform Polymarket has angered some gamblers by declaring it will not settle millions of dollars’ worth of bets on a US invasion of Venezuela, arguing that the capture of the then president, Nicolás Maduro, does not qualify. Before Donald Trump’s forces seized Maduro on Saturday morning, some traders appeared to have anticipated the shock move by placing bets on “prediction markets”. These are gambling platforms that allow individuals to wager on a range of markets that have been…

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Today was my first day back in worth in nearly three weeks so I haven’t followed the news today so apologies for the brevity of this piece. I find this quip from Starmer funny and interesting, it is an area where Farage and Reform are weak, particularly after the imprisonment of Nathan Gill. I wonder if Starmer has some private polling on this. TSE

This is not something the editor of political betting should admit to but am times I am losing my enthusiasm for betting on politics largely because of the mango Mussolini. I am not sure the old assumptions on who will win bellwether seats like Watford, Stafford, and Amber Valley will work if Donald Trump starts invading Greenland, it’ll be the end of NATO, and that will change things in UK politics that I cannot fully be comprehend. I expect defence…

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TSE

For most of 2024 I advocated laying Nigel Farage in the next Prime Minister market not because I am sure Reform will not win the next general election but I thought Labour might end up ousting Sir Keir Starmer if things looked bad for them but in light of yesterday morning’s thread that might be a courageous position. Only if you are certain that Reform will not win the next general election should you lay Nigel Farage in this market….

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On Saturday I pointed out the perceived insider betting on Polymarket regarding the events in Venezuela so this market is concerning. I don’t think people in the UK fully appreciate the ramifications of a Chinese invasion of Taiwan, this is not a  quarrel in a far away country, between people of whom we know nothing. The industry I work in one of the known unknowns is the Chinese invasion of Taiwan, the disruption to the world economy and the finances…

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Note: I have excluded John Smith’s tenure as Labour leader for obvious reasons. The nexus point for British politics in 2026 is whether Sir Keir Starmer KC will remain Prime Minister and there’s an expectation he will be ousted shortly after the local and devolved elections in May. The current expectation is Labour will perform as well as HMS Hood at Battle of the Denmark Strait, if you’re not aware of that engagement ‘Less than 10 minutes after the British…

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As a child of the 1980s the music of the era had a profound effect on me as people can guess from my occasional subtle 80s music references in the headlines so I find this kind of analysis utterly mesmerising. Perhaps as a nation we might feel better and more united if we listened to more 1980s and 1990s music. TSE