politicalbetting.com

Whilst the final results haven’t been confirmed as ever it is the economy, stupid, the wave that has unseated incumbent governments across the world, people seldom reward governments and parties that make them poorer. T hat should give the Dems some hope for 2028, particularly if Donald Trump delivers on his promise to return America to the time of Smoot-Hawley, a tariff policy which helped see the GOP lose the next five presidential elections. TSE

If/when Trump wins then the gender split will be why. The latest results have moved Betfair back to Trump. TSE

I think the Indiana results are a bit of unwind because Mike Pence isn’t on the Republican ticket and Trump’s conduct towards Pence on that day of infamy that was January 6th 2021 but the exit poll from Georgia looks good for Trump. I am intrigued that Indiana hasn’t been insta-called by the networks yet. [Edit – CNN haven’t called it but AP have.) TSE

I am always wary when I see videos like this as they seem to infer record breaking turnout, they haven’t moved the Betfair market. TSE

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Earlier I backed Kamala Harris thinking she was value, my ability to move betting markets remains unparalleled as her odds lengthened ever further, so she’s even more value now. I find Trump and Farage’s comments interesting but I am probably reading too much in to them. TSE

With the polls predicting a very close race we shouldn’t be surprised if the winner of the electoral college will be the candidate who finished second in the popular vote. Since the Berlin Wall fell there have been eight American presidential elections and in seven of those elections the Republican party candidate have lost the popular vote so I can understand why people would want to back Trump in this Betfair market but I think the value is with Harris…

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