politicalbetting.com

The Sunday Times are reporting Nigel Farage has given his strongest indication yet that he could stand again for parliament after a poll suggested he would comfortably win a seat previously held by Ukip. The survey, commissioned by Arron Banks, the former Ukip donor, suggested that Farage would win 37 per cent of the vote in Clacton in Essex, beating the Tory incumbent by ten percentage points. Responding to its findings, Farage said: “I have to say to you that…

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I am glad I live in the United Kingdom where we have an orderly changes of government and no Second Amendment. TSE

TSE

Thanks to Cyclefree most PBers are well aware of the industrial scale miscarriage of justice involving the Post Office and the prosecution of the subpostmasters and subpostmistresses, with the ITV series on the Post Office scandal airing this past week the scandal is entering the wider public consciousness as a few of us predicted. This has led to difficulties for Sir Ed Davey who was Post Office Minister and dealt with some of the victims who were unimpressed with his…

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Coupled with the by-election in Wellingborough this by-election in Kingswood could be the events which could hasten the end of Sunak. At the time plenty of people did say the Tories took all the wrong lessons from the Uxbridge & South Ruislip result. The other day I observed that Starmer is a lucky general, Sunak is the antithesis of that. I’m expecting a Labour gain here. TSE

I love studying history and past polls is a particular area that brings unbridled joy is when we are looking for evidence of swingback. Based on precedent Labour’s lead at the general election could be as low as 4% which make those people betting on no overall majority rather happy. My two key takeaways is that Starmer isn’t doing as well as Cameron & Blair, the only two people in the last forty four years to make the transition from…

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Last week I advised Sunak to rule out a May election as soon as possible lest he falls into Labour’s trap and be labelled a bottler, as we can see from the above tweets he has just done that. Also he has ruled out a January 2025 election as only the heir to the throne of the kingdom of idiots would hold an election that straddled Christmas and the New Year period. The question is when in H2 of 2024…

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If a year ago you had told me in 2023 Nicola Sturgeon would resign as Scottish First Minister & SNP Leader and then her husband and later herself would be arrested regarding the SNP finances I would have chastised you for drinking too many eggnogs but that’s what happened. It was a surreal moment when a motorhome became the focus of the investigation (from Winnie Ewing to Winnebago) but the moment of her arrest was seminal. From First Minister to…

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