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Author: TSE

Who will be Tory leader at the next general election?

Who will be Tory leader at the next general election?

Smarkets have some very low liquidity markets on who will be Tory leader at the next general election but it chimes in with markets where punters think Kemi Badenoch is doomed where it is believed that senior members of Hezbollah and the IRFC have longer career prospects that Kemi Badenoch. I cannot see any value here, if it wasn’t for the time value of money backing Boris Johnson to not be Tory leader at the next election would be the…

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Apologising for Brexit

Apologising for Brexit

Monday is the ninth anniversary of when the United Kingdom voted to impose economic sanctions on itself and it is no surprise pollsters are polling and whilst all the focus on the majority wanting to rejoin/having closer relations with the EU without rejoining my focus will be elsewhere. The majority of Brits think Brexit was the wrong decision/a failure and the Tories are getting the blame both as a party and individual people, the question is how they can fix…

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Boris Johnson has worse net ratings than Starmer, Badenoch, and Farage

Boris Johnson has worse net ratings than Starmer, Badenoch, and Farage

I continue to advise to lay Boris Johnson in the next Tory leader markets for several reasons, he’s not an MP, Kemi Badenoch feels like she will be ousted within the next 12 months or so. Another reason is that he’s not that well regarded by the public, leader approval ratings can often give a better outcome of elections than voting intention polls and there’s plenty of Tories and others who will tell you that Sir Keir Starmer is a…

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America and the UK are standing shoulder to shoulder when it comes to not defending Israel

America and the UK are standing shoulder to shoulder when it comes to not defending Israel

I suspect this polling is a result of the way the Israelis have behaved in Gaza even longstanding supporters of Israel have accused of them committing genocide. My expectation is support for backing Israel will fall further as more and more people become of aware of Israel doing a Tony Blair and lied and exaggerated about another country’s weapons of mass destruction. TSE

Next cabinet minister to go

Next cabinet minister to go

Looking at this market from William Hill I wonder if the value might be with Bridget Phillipson who has been tipped to be sacked in a forthcoming reshuffle because her stint as Education Secretary has been suboptimal. I am also tempted to back Shabana Mahmood at 5/1 because she’s become very vocal on opposing the assisted suicide bill but the tipping point for her might be Labour effectively decriminalises abortion in England and Wales all the way up to birth,…

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