This usually is a market where laying the favourite is profitable but in this instance I am not so sure given the clown car comedy act Starmer’s premiership has become. I have been advising laying Nigel Farage in this market for months because if Starmer goes before the general election then his replacement will be from the Labour party. TSE
Last night my phone starting pinging like mad with news alerts from various news apps I have on my phone about Sir Keir Starmer facing a leadership within the next few weeks. Historically it is very difficult to replace a sitting Labour leader, 172 Labour MPs out of 232 MPs voted to say they had no confidence in Jeremy Corbyn but he remained in place. My only betting strategy in light of this news is to keep on laying Andy…
On Saturday I pointed out that the voters will be unhappy if Rachel Reeves raises taxes in this month’s budget but there’s some wiggle room for her. As we can see in the above poll few Brits think Brexit has been good for anything, the sunlit uplands are as dark as a December night. The problem for Labour is that if they keep on blaming Brexit for the ills of the country then country might soon as the government to…
The headline grabbing feature of this poll is that on the economy Labour are polling worse than Liz Truss however there’s someting much more interesting for me. Reform are polling very well in the voting intention figures yet more people trust the Tories on the economy, this might indicate that the Reform vote share is soft and can be reduced and the Tories could do much better a general election if they can present themselves as the most (relatively) economic…
I am not playing this market as it is the epitome of an insiders’ market despite Suella Braverman’s longstanding flirtation with Reform. I am not sure what Suella Braverman’s purpose is in the Tory Party other than to ensure Robert Jenrick isn’t the most disliked Tory MP. TSE
One of the seemingly immutable laws of politics is when parties and politicians break their promises on taxes they suffer in the polls and the ballot box. Remember George Bush Snr and ‘read my lips, no new taxes’ or the Tories winning the 1992 general election by focussing taxes going up a lot under Labour then the Tories won the election and put up taxes a lot. This week Rachel Reeves has been making statements about she will break the…
TSE
PBers should be familiar with the concept of a trading bet and I think Marjorie Taylor Greene winning the presidency in 2028 falls into that category. Normally I would have expected her to court the hardcore MAGA types that believe George Soros funds Jewish space lasers that help illegal immigrants invade America and caused Covid-19 but as we can see in the above Tweets she appears to becoming de-radicalised. She might end building a coalition of voters, or she might…