Voting closed at 5pm in the race to succeed Rishi Sunak and Robert Jenrick’s chances are near rock bottom (but he has been lower before) but I do think he remains a smidgen of value given the last YouGov poll had him losing to Badenoch by a mere 4%. The result will be announced at 11am on Saturday morning. TSE
With the White House race essentially being a coin toss the Betfair market appears to disagree but given the the news coming out regarding Polymarket raises eyebrows. I suspect there are sufficient safeguards in place to stop market manipulation on Betfair and with over £116 million matched on this Betfair market it seems a poor use of resources to waste money on the betting markets rather than spend the money in key battleground states like Georgia and Pennsylvania. Perhaps one…
The early narrative about this budget could be sub-optimal for Labour. TSE
Since winning a stonking majority in July it’s not gone swimmingly for Sir Keir with several unforced errors and his ratings cratering but today represents a chance for a reset. Given the leaks so far I expect some eye catching things to be announced during the first Labour budget in fourteen years. A golden rule of budgets is those that are cheered on the day often fall apart within a few days. Regretfully there appear to be no betting markets…
Harris continues to sink with punters on Betfair, the polling indicates this election is a coin toss so that makes Harris a bit of value but if the race turns out to be tie then Trump wins. TSE
PBers have probably worked out that I am no fan of Kemi Badenoch but yet I still voted for her in the Tory leadership contest because Robert Jenrick is her opponent. Jenrick’s dealings with Richard Desmond, the former publisher of august titles such as Horny Housewives, Mega Boobs, Posh Wives, Skinny & Wriggly, Big and Black, Barely Legal, and even more embarrassingly the Daily Express, is the main reason because I believe in integrity and nobody with such a record…
But will it shift any/many votes? I have my doubts. You’d have to be on the left hand side of the Bell curve if you aren’t worried by a Trump presidency. Forget his fascist tendencies for a moment, his plans for tariffs would be a disaster not just for America but the world. Donald Trump remains the favourite on Betfair and the polls generally indicate he will be the new Grover Cleveland. TSE
I love surreal poll questions like this. I am in the 12%. TSE