One of the reasons I have backed Ron DeSantis is that if the Trump presidency turns into a bit of a disaster (well more of a disaster than it currently is) then that damages the likes of J.D. Vance and Marco Rubio. Being a relative ‘clean skin’ would be an advantage for the Governor of Florida. TSE
I am coming to the conclusion that Clive Lewis is not a fan of Wes Streeting, they once had an infamous Twitter spat. There are two things I am watching at the moment, if Andy Burnham repudiates this talk, and if Clive Lewis does trigger a by-election, will Sir Keir Starmer ensure the candidate for the by-election is from an all women shortlist. TSE
I look at a potential by-election in Norwich South and I cannot help think any by-election would be difficult for Labour to hold. They could be pincered senseless by the Greens on their left flank and Reform on their right flank. As we saw in Caerphilly a left wing party other than Labour could be the default stop Reform party, I cannot see Andy Burnham risking his political future on such a risky by-election. Such a by-election would be less…
America had some important elections earlier on this month and people have looked at the underlying numbers and one thing stands out, Hispanics swinging against the Republican party, given how Trump’s ICE have been behaving this is no surprise. When looking at next year’s mid-terms it will be worth looking at the demographics and where there’s a lot of Hispanics then Republican party will do worse. TSE
After the last general election I awarded Sir Keir Starmer the title ‘Malleus ScotNatorum’ but the way things are headed I will be taking that title away next May. I find the first question fascinating as it shows just fewer than a quarter of Scots would consider voting Labour. Previously I have talked about about the potential for the Liberal Democrats to overtake Labour, perhaps Scotland might be the first place it happens. I am not sure there’s not any…
PBers know how much Mike Smithson and myself regard the satisfaction ratings from Ipsos and they are utterly grim for the First and Second Lords of the Treasury. Whilst Liz Truss ratings were much lower with other pollsters these are still ultimately grim for Starmer & Reeves. Political authority is a lot like virginity, once it has gone it is close to impossible to regain, I thought Starmer would be difficult to oust as Labour leader given Labour’s past history…
The politician with the least self awareness is Liz Truss who after her disastrous 49 day tenure as Prime Minister thought she might still have a major role in the Tory party but she now has a rival in Angela Rayner. My view is that you cannot go from having to resign in disgrace over your tax affairs to running for Prime Minister particularly if I expect Labour will focus on Nigel Farage’s probity and financial affairs at the next…
I suspect we will have to wait until next year’s primaries and November elections to see who has won this particular battle. I suspect Trump will become rather more volatile if the Epstein files are realised, I am not sure why the self confessed pussy grabber is worried. This might be good news for my 140/1 tip on MTG winning the presidency in 2028. TSE