What I find striking about these figures are the scores for social media and newspapers for likely Labour voters. My hunch is the written media will not have such an impact on Labour as in the past but that this election campaign could be swung online against Labour where things aren’t quite so tightly regulated. TSE
One of the reasons I am confident that Joe Biden will prevail in November is abortion and Donald Trump’s poor ratings with Independents and these poor ratings now extend to the Republicans. Whilst the Democrats have poor ratings with Independents but not as bad as the GOP as Boris Johnson can attest you can win a general election with poor ratings when your opponent has even worse ratings. I do expect the ratings to get worse for the GOP over…
What I find really interesting about this MRP is that it sees Labour increase its number of seats from 385 seats in the last YouGov MRP in January which means we may need to stop talking about swingback but the opposite of swingback could happen. Labour will be delighted that this is the first MRP this year showing Scotland rejecting division and secession. I will advise PBers that MRPs can be glorified standing voting intentions and only become more accurate…
This couldn’t even be classed as a Pyrrhic victory but success equals performance minus anticipation. TSE
Every poll seems to bring a new a record breaking poll for Reform and Ladbrokes have a market on whether YouGov will have a poll reaching the apotheosis of outpolling the the Tories before the general election. I can see it happening in a very narrow window after the Tories get gubbed in the locals and there’s a vote of confidence in Sunak and the Tories commit their regular bout of seppuku however as Ladbrokes are not offering both sides of…
The number that really stands out is the 2019 Tory voters a group that Sunak hasn’t been very popular with. I think that group like the rest of the country knows a third consecutive mandateless Prime Minister is utterly farcical and such a change will bring new dramas for the country and party. The poll represents some good news for Penny Mordaunt but leading the Tories to a 15% popular vote defeat instead of 21% defeat isn’t that impressive in…
Whilst the focus on the MRP will be the size of the Labour majority/the Tory wipeout and Sunak at risk of losing his seat this is the second MRP this year showing the SNP overwhelmingly winning the majority of Scottish seats. Polls should be smoked but not inhaled especially MRPs i have my doubts about the Reform figure and where their support will go if they don’t stand. I cannot see Sunak’s seat going Labour, looking under the hood this…
About a decade ago I had a conversation with a political adviser who with equal measure of delight and astonishment admitted that since David Cameron became Tory leader the Tories led Labour on the NHS which was something nobody could have predicted saying it was as likely as Labour leading the Tories on defence. The sad thing for the Tories and even more importantly for the country is that is polling was inevitable, there have been enough warnings that the…