Longstanding readers of PB know that leadership ratings can often be a better barometer of electoral outcomes than standard voting intention polls and I wonder if we could see something similar in the West Midlands Mayoral election where current Tory incumbent Andy Street has a net positive ratings. I suspect the wider national polling will cost Street but if there was any liquidity in this market it might be worth a punt on Street. TSE update thanks to The Woodpecker…
The Times report that Three quarters of the 100 constituencies worst hit by sewage spills last year are held by Conservative MPs. Environment Agency data showed that discharges of raw sewage into seas and rivers doubled in duration last year to a record 3.6 million hours. Among the top 100 constituencies in England worst affected by the dumping, which typically happens when sewers are overwhelmed by heavy rainfall, 75 were held by Tory MPs. Three of the seats were held…
Because it happens so rarely I don’t mind admitting when I get it wrong and turns out I was wrong to criticise the Turnip Taliban who tried to deselect Liz Truss in 2009 when her affair with Tory MP Mark Field became public. I dismissed them as dinosaurs but turns out they were visionaries and I wish them well in their plan to oust Liz Truss at the next election, the clips above show why the only office is she…
I’ve thought for a while that the story about Angela Rayner’s living arrangements was all light and no heat and yesterday’s segment on the Politics Show just confirmed that. I cringed so much watching the performance by James Daly that my shoe size shrank by three sizes, he’s the one who made the complaint and that’s the best he can do. TSE
I am one of those people who still thinks the general election result will be better for the Tories than the current polls imply (although I am not ruling out a 1931 in reverse result) but I am intrigued by this analysis from the political data scientist of The Economist. This nowcast sees the Tories win just short of 200 seats which would be comparable to the 2005 general election result which every Tory would take right now. I still…
On Betfair you can get odds of 100/1 on Liz Truss to succeed Rishi Sunak as Tory leader, my money is on backing the lettuce laying Liz Truss in this market, it would be an act of political seppuku by the Tories to install her as leader, just look at the Ipsos polling on her. I really do worry about her lack of self awareness and denial about her disastrous stint as Prime Minister, somebody this deluded shouldn’t be working…
I love facts like this. TSE
Can we please have constituency markets and spreads for the general election? We are potentially a few weeks away from a general election and as far as I can see there are no individual constituency markets so we cannot bet on the most intriguing seats like Didcot & Wantage. There are also no seat spread betting opportunities which is where loins are girded and some of my biggest ever political wins have occured. I followed Mike Smithson in selling Tory…