Let’s party like it is 2005
I am one of those people who still thinks the general election result will be better for the Tories than the current polls imply (although I am not ruling out a 1931 in reverse result) but I am intrigued by this analysis from the political data scientist of The Economist.
This nowcast sees the Tories win just short of 200 seats which would be comparable to the 2005 general election result which every Tory would take right now. I still expect a modicum of swingback between now and the election which could see the result even better than the current nowcast.
There may well be a smidgen of value in backing the Tories to lose only 51 to 100 seats because if there is any swingback it looks a good trading bet.
TSE