Once more, could a British led European alliance be the key to victory? The key reason I thought Donald Trump would win last year was the economy, so these types of findings are key to who wins the midterms and 2028 election. Assuming free and fair elections are held in 2026 and 2028 then if I were a GOP strategist I would be very worried. TSE
Assuming there are free and fair elections in 2028 then I think there there is value in backing Senator Mark Kelly to win the presidency in 2028. He has a compelling backstory, a former veteran of the Gulf War, an astronaut, husband of Gabby Giffords, annoyer of Elon Musk, Senator, and as we can see from the clips above a pretty good questioner of the idiocy of the second Trump presidency. I also think he would carry the key state…
If the answer is yes to the question in the headline then this Ladbrokes market is for you. TSE
Former Governor of the Bank of England turned Prime Minister of Canada Mark Carney has called an election for the 28th of April and this will be a test if Donald Trump’s interventions can shape elections outside of Les Etats-Unis. As we can see in the chart above we can see Trump’s interventions have moved voting intentions but will this translate into real votes. If Donald Trump’s strategy was to win over Canadians he has been so bad at it,…
The final chart from YouGov might mean Labour will lose their defence of blaming the Tories for the state of the economy. TSE
I have said for a while that the biggest threat for the Tories is that the narrative for the next election is a fight between Labour and Reform, this polling reinforces that. If Kemi Badenoch wants to become Prime Minister it is a narrative she needs to destroy and reshape. TSE
I have always been quite dismissive of people when it comes to the Ship of Theseus philosophical question who say it is the same ship. Using the broom question I cannot help but roll my eyes at 29% of the public. TSE
I find this polling from Ipsos intriguing. The précis of the findings is the pubic think Starmer & Reeves are, economically, nearly as bad the pandemic and the Truss/Kwarteng experience yet Labour are still the most trusted to manage the economy but that score is 23% which is like being the most beautiful turkey at the farm in the run up to Christmas. The first chart shows that when governments get ratings this bad they seldom go on and win…