politicalbetting.com

Despite being potentially four and a half years away from the next election some people, particularly on social media, are calling the next election for Reform which seem a courageous call and may turn out to be as ridiculous as those who in early September 2022 thought Liz Truss would make for an excellent Prime Minister. This is not intended to be a discussion about Brexit but about Trump, for good or ill Nigel Farage is seen as very close…

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TSE

As the grandson of humble immigrants to the United Kingdom, like my grandmother, I have never quite got my head around the British class system. I’ve always thought the best way is to judge people by their actions not where they came from and I suspect that’s the thinking of most of the country. My view is that if Starmer’s advisers try and emphasise Starmer’s working class roots as a way to win votes then they are as deluded at…

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Yesterday’s news about a potential pact between the Tories and Reform helped crystalise a thought I’ve had about why backing Reform to win the most seats at the next general election might not be profitable even if you are confident that Nigel Farage is going to be the Prime Minister after the next election. I’ll explain the reasons why this is plausible I) A pact between Reform and the Tories. This might allow Labour to win the most seats but…

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Like John Rentoul I think there will be no pact simply because of the logistics of organising the pact. It would a very messy process deciding which seats/candidates you agree to stand/withdraw in, there’s also the issue of ego. I cannot see Badenoch or Farage being able to manage the pact process or a general election campaign where one of them would have to play second fiddle to the other. For those reasons alone I cannot see a pact happening…

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The good news for Badenoch and the Tories is that if Badenoch can get a good brand going it might not be all gloom and doom for the Tories. TSE

This morning I wrote a piece on the next Prime Minister betting market and I thought the value lay with somebody on the Labour side, but who? This is a market that may not realise a winner for around a decade or longer so things can change a lot as well as the time value of money ruining your returns, who in 1980 would predicted lowly backbencher John Major would succeed Margaret Thatcher? Right now I think this market and…

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I maintain that Farage remains a lay in this market and the value lies with somebody on the Labour side who would replace Starmer before the next election. If he was contemplating resigning after the Hartlepool by election defeat then he might actually quit if things go sub-optimally during the rest of his premiership. TSE