My first thoughts about this polling is that Reform voters are very positive about what a Reform government will achieve which means their support won’t be shifting. That Green figure is intriguing and it means the assumption that plenty of Greens will vote for Labour as the lesser of two evils might be misplaced. TSE
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This market from Ladbrokes is interesting but one that I am not playing, I think it will be easier to lay/back and trade out the individual parties on Betfair. TSE
One of the assumptions several people are making is that the centre left will unite behind Labour at the next election but Starmer’s recent pivot seems to hardened that support against him and not win him many Reform curious voters. The final post shows how the voters see the Tory party after the Boriswave. TSE
For me the most interesting finding from YouGov is the third chart which shows just how few people think Brexit was a good idea, whilst Kemi Badenoch screams betrayal it won’t damage Starmer. I suspect soon only the people left who think Brexit was the right thing to do will be down to the people who lack the intellect God gave pistachio nuts. TSE
Ladbrokes have put up a market on whether they will win more seats than the Tories at the next election, I have previously noted the gap between the Tories and Lib Dems has never been closer as we can see in the chart above even before the Reform surge. I suspect the lengthy timeframe of any payout negates any value but I’d be backing the Lib Dems here. TSE
Earlier on this month the British Polling Council held an event to look at what went wrong with the polling at the last year’s election, you can find the report here and there’s a lot to digest. Over the next few days I will looking at several areas but today I am focussing on the fact that polling industry consistently underestimates the Conservative vote whilst regularly overestimating Labour. If Reform are to eclipse the Conservatives is this underestimation that will…
Earlier on this month I said the Tories are a rounding error from being fourth in the polls and it has happened which is great news for my 50/1 bet on the Lib Dems winning the most seats at the next election. It’s now a matter of when not if Kemi Badenoch is replaced as Tory leader before the election. TSE