Today John Swinney became leader of the SNP following the withdrawal of Graeme McCormick and Mr Swinney must be hoping for a better time as leader than this first stint. The first poll conducted entirely since Humza Yousaf announced his resignation shows how grim things are for the SNP because their fall in the polls is potentially going to allow the Tories to increase their number of Scottish MPs even if they are going to be pummelled UK wide. At…
I do not expect Graeme McCormick to defeat John Swinney, to coin a phrase having a First Minister outwith Holyrood is logically flatulence in a trance although I suppose McCormick could stay in motorhome outside Holyrood and govern from there if he were to win. Right now John Swinney is 1.01 on Betfair to succeed Humza Yousaf and Graeme McCormick isn’t even listed, I do not expect Swinney’s odds to change. TSE
Patrick English, YouGov’s Director of Political Analytics, has done some sterling work in identifying this trend from the locals. As Margaret Thatcher, Sir John Major, and Theresa May could all attest your leadership/general election chances can be fatally damaged by messing around people’s houses and the costs therein. If interest rates are cut before the election I suspect the voters will not forget their hardship caused by Liz Truss and economic experiment so there will be next to no reward…
Overnight it was reported in The Times that Tory rebels had stopped their plans to oust Sunak because of the Tories winning the Tees Valley and West Midlands mayorships. The latter is looking unlikely at the moment. If Street does lose the rebels may decide to try and oust Sunak as from the local council elections, to the by election, and the key mayoralties it has been a truly terrible set of elections for the Tories. TSE
At no point has Susan Hall been the favourite or close to becoming the favourite but it has been a bit frantic for some. Hopefully those who backed Susan Hall at long odds have been able to trade out for a profit. TSE
I am keeping calm because that is my nature and the fact a few weeks ago I tipped Susan Hall to win at 28s, I would urge others to do the same. If Starmer wins the general election he might change the voting system to the alternative voting system for London and Westminster, after all the Labour leader is elected by the alternative voting system and the Tory leader is elected under a form of quasi-AV. If it is good…
I know it is gauche to remind people you are right but I have been dubious about the projected landslides the traditional voting intention polls indicate mostly due to the toxic legacy Starmer inherited (in 1997 Tony Blair started with 271 seats whereas Starmer starts on 202.) It isn’t all doom and gloom for Labour, I suspect if a narrative holds that there will be a hung parliament it will drive up anti Tory tactical voting at the general election…
Having tipped Street and Hall at 4s and 28s I am feeling rather smug but I only expect to see Street to win because Hall winning would be the greatest collective polling failure in UK history. I wonder what lessons the parliamentary Conservative party will take from the victory by Houchen and the anticipated Street victory? I think it bodes ill for Sunak particularly when compared to the council results. TSE