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The (literally for some) seminal moment of the 1997 general election was Defence Secretary Michael Portillo and likely next Tory leader losing his seat and according to some polls we might be headed for something even more spectacular this year. The Tories losing Richmond & Northallerton feels like a the ravens fleeing of the Tower of London of moment, I just cannot see it happening despite Sunak’s best efforts. Below are the odds from Ladbrokes for Sunak’s seat and I…

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Like CCHQ I wouldn’t be astonished to see Reform ahead of the Tories with a BPC registered pollster in a GB wide poll in the next few days. If that happens I expect the betting markets to have a moment. We’ve been here before, back in 2010 after the first debate the Lib Dems surged from third to first in the polls thanks to Nick Clegg’s performance. The market wildly overreacted which allowed for great profits such as the Lib…

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Unless Starmer or Sunak soil themselves on stage I expect very little change to the market. TSE

Prior to Donald Trump’s conviction there was polling showing that a significant number of Americans wouldn’t vote for a convicted felon and this polling is an artefact of that. I expect polling like this will go further south for Trump once we get to his sentencing hearing. TSE

One thing I remember about the YouGov MRPs from 2017 and 2019 is the first ones were closer to the actual results and I wonder if that trend will continue in 2024? These MRPs were conducted before Farage’s announcement, like Sir John Curtice I think is ultimately sub-optimal for the Tories. TSE

This shows the betting on Betfair overall majority market over the last three and a half a years. We can see a Labour majority traded as low as an 8.3% chance in May 2021, now they are a 91% chance. I find it amusing that NOM is now as low as Labour’s lowest chance of winning a majority. TSE

The Opinium poll must really sting for the Tories given how they generally have been the most favourable pollster for the Tories. If this is the beginning of a trend with Opinium then last night’s MRP might turn out to be close. TSE

My word, if this MRP is accurate we should talking about the Lib Dems as the official opposition after the election. I expect a few other MRPs over the next few weeks, if they are anything like this then we will be entering a death loop for the Tories. It may also bugger up a few Tory leadership plans. TSE