There’s been quite a lot of excitement over the latest YouGov poll which has a subsample showing Reform leading in Scotland. This is based on 145 respondents in Scotland, unlike other pollsters YouGov do weight their subsamples but even still the margin of error is just over 8% so nobody should be confident in saying Reform are leading in Scotland. I will need to see full sized Scotland polls from a couple of reputable BPC registered pollsters showing Reform ahead…
This polling reminds me why I am so dubious about hypothetical polling. We often see polls like this showing the public favouring higher taxes but that support evaporates once those taxes are increased. TSE
I detest any form of class warfare and it looks like we’re in for an awful lot of it. I suspect Farage’s spin will fail as will Labour’s class warfare, they tried it against David Cameron and Boris Johnson and it failed although it shows prejudice against the privately educated is the last acceptable prejudice in this country. I am strongly of the opinion that people with class do not talk about class TSE
As a general rule I am not a fan of best Prime Minister polling because there is a strong incumbency bias, Jim Callaghan led Margaret Thatcher on this metric on election day in 1979. This type of polling is only useful when the an opposition leader takes consistent leads in this poll as it usually presages a change of government however there is something very interesting which will make grim reading for Kemi Badenoch, she is barely beating Nigel Farage…
I still think the value is with Donald Trump Jr given the iron grip his father has on the Republican party. TSE
From The Telegraph article A shadow Cabinet minister said that they could not think “of a single one” of their colleagues who thought Mr Johnson returning to the Conservative Party fold would be a good thing. Iain Martin, a political columnist, told the Not Another One podcast last week that two Conservatives MPs had made it known they would “not stick around” if Mr Johnson became party leader again. This is great news for those laying Boris Johnson as next Tory leader….
The Sunday Times published a story about Kemi Badenoch’s leadership which has progressed as serenely as Operation Citadel did for the Germans, it really is a matter of when she is replaced before the general election not if and inevitably discussion has turned to her successor, Tim Shipman writes I cannot see either plan working, firstly there’s only one Tory MP who received over 50% of the vote at the last election not the eight Boris Johnson and his allies…
My first thoughts about this polling is that Reform voters are very positive about what a Reform government will achieve which means their support won’t be shifting. That Green figure is intriguing and it means the assumption that plenty of Greens will vote for Labour as the lesser of two evils might be misplaced. TSE